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AN ADVANCE IN EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING SUPPORT TECHNOLOGY

From:  E.D.G., Scientific Consultant, edgrsprj@ix.netcom.com
Posted To:  Earthquake Related Newsgroups
Date Posted:  Monday, August 11, 1997

This notice will discuss a technology advance which should make
it easier for small scientific groups and independent researchers
to develop their own earthquake forecasting programs.  This
advance involves the ability to create and run Internet World
Wide Web site programs which are capable of automatically
collecting, processing, storing, displaying, and transmitting
earthquake precursor data.

All of the information in this notice represents expressions of
personal opinion.

EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR DATA BASED FORECASTING PROGRAMS

Scientists often prefer to have a single, reliable procedure to
use for collecting information regarding a given phenomenon.
However, when no one reliable test is available, as is frequently
the case, they may shift to the use of large amounts of
information which is collected by running a variety of tests.
With luck they will be able to statistically process their data
and come up with the answer that they need.  I believe that many
weather forecasts are examples of that type of data collection
and processing.

As far as I am aware there are no widely accepted and reliable
earthquake forecasting procedures available for us to use at this
time.  But I personally believe that if we were to collect and
process large amounts of earthquake precursor data we might be
able to detect the approach of at least some earthquakes.

INTERNET WORLD WIDE WEB SITE BASED DATA PROCESSING PROGRAMS

It is now possible for private parties to rent space on
commercial Internet servers and write and run their own computer
programs capable of automatically processing large amounts of
earthquake precursor data submitted via Web site data entry
screens and e-mail.  This essentially enables people to use the
Internet as what might be regarded as a powerful and
sophisticated spreadsheet or data base program similar to one
which can be run on a personal computer.

Web sites can be rented for as little as $10 per month.  Program
development requires an ability to work with relatively simple
algebraic equations, some experience with HTML, and some
experience with computer programming.  Many technically oriented
people have such a background.  At this point the steps involved
with creating such programs are not as clearly outlined as one
would like.  But with time that situation should improve.

For about a decade I myself have been attempting, without
success, to get government agencies and scientific groups to
develop global earthquake precursor data collection and
evaluation programs.  Several months ago I discovered how I could
develop Internet based programs for doing that myself.  In a
short time I learned what I needed to know about HTML, Forms
Processor, and PERL CGI programming.  And I now have my own
earthquake forecasting program up and running.  The address for a
report which it creates at the end of the day which summarizes
information which people have submitted to it is:

http://www.webcom.com/quakenet/seismic/101report.html
(or)  http://www.quakenet.org/seismic/101report.html

(That second address uses the domain name for the Web site.  It
will not work with some older Internet browsers.)

My program is designed to collect and display data submitted to
it by earthquake sensitives around the world.  But anyone with
the type of technical background discussed earlier could easily
develop such a program for use with other types of earthquake
precursor data.  And although I have not yet looked into this, I
would imagine that there are a number of commercial Internet
servers out there which allow private parties to develop and run
these types of programs.

Along with death and taxes we are going to have earthquakes with
us for the foreseeable future.  And they will continue to cost
lives.  Over the years, researchers around the world have come up
with innovative approaches for predicting them.  And another
technology advance is now available to assist those researchers
with their efforts.