🚀 go-pugleaf

In <63uaf9$gli@dfw-ixnews9.ix.netcom.com>
edgrsprj@ix.netcom.com(E.D.G.) writes: 
>

RE: POSSIBLE EARTHQUAKE ADVISORY  11/6/97
From:  E.D.G., Scientific Consultant, edgrsprj@ix.netcom.com
Posted To:  Earthquake Related Newsgroups
Date Posted:  November 8, 1997

       The following advisory was posted to my Web site
Earthquake Alert Page on November 6, 1997 and to a number of
Internet Newsgroups.  It was also circulated by e-mail.

---------------------------------------------------------------
Probability That This Earthquake Will Occur: 65%
Time Window: November 6, 1997 to November 10, 1997
Possible Magnitudes For Different Locations:
4.5 to 5.5 - urban areas
5.5 to 6.0 - rural areas
6.0 +      - remote areas
Warning Signal Detection Method: Human earthquake sensitivity
Possible Location: No data available at this time

COMMENT:  My advisories are for earthquakes which may occur close
enough to population centers to produce damage.  They are not for
the innumerable harmless earthquakes which occur every year.
---------------------------------------------------------------

The following earthquake report is from a NEIS table.

97/11/08 10:02:48 35.04N  87.31E 10.0 7.9Ms A XIZANG

       That earthquake would match up with my advisory for the
time that it occurred.  And reports that I have read state that
it occurred in a fairly remote area.  So its magnitude would also
match with my advisory.

       My theories propose that the warning signals which I
believe I am able to detect indicate that large numbers of people
living near a fault zone have become subconsciously aware of
fault zone activities which sometimes precede an earthquake.  The
intensity of those warning signals is dependent on both the
magnitude of the earthquake and the number of people living near
the fault zone.  The fewer the number of people the greater the
magnitude must be in order for a given intensity warning signal
to be generated.  I believe that a 7.9 magnitude earthquake
combined with relatively few people living near the fault zone
might produce the fairly low intensity warning signal which I
detected on 11/6/97.

A GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE WARNING CIRCULATION PROGRAM

       My earthquake advisories are being circulated for their
warning value.  And there is another important reason for my
circulating them.

       They are a part of an effort which I am making to put
together an informal global earthquake warning program.

       The warning signals which I detect do not contain any
location information for an approaching earthquake.  And so the
best that I can presently do is advise people when they should
begin looking around for other indicators that an earthquake with
a certain destructive potential might be about to occur.

       On December 30, 1994 I had a commercial FAX service send a
FAX to the U.S. National Earthquake Center in Golden, Colorado
warning federal officials to begin watching for an earthquake
which might be about half as destructive as the one which
occurred on September 29, 1993 in Maharashtra, India.  The
Maharashtra earthquake reportedly killed more than 10,000 people.
And I was expecting that the earthquake associated with my
December 30, 1994 warning signal might produce half that many
casualties.  Two and a half weeks later, on January 17, 1995 an
earthquake in Kobe, Japan reportedly killed more than 5000
people.

       I was not on the Internet at the time of the Kobe
earthquake.  Earthquakes do not occur where I live.  My local
government officials are not interested in hearing about them.
And sending a FAX warning to the NEC was the best idea that I
could come up with at that time.  One of the reasons that I had a
commercial FAX service send them the FAX was so that I would have
some documentation which could be used to show WHEN and TO WHOM
the FAX was sent.

       That warning approach apparently did not work.  As far as
I am aware no one in Japan ever saw my warning message.  The
people of Kobe were not aware that they should be looking around
for earthquake precursors which could signal the approach of an
earthquake.  They were unprepared when the earthquake occurred.
And many lives were lost.

       It is probably just a matter of time before I detect
another high intensity earthquake warning signal as I did before
the deadly earthquakes in Maharashtra and Kobe (those were the
only two high intensity signals which I have detected to date).
And I believe that it is important that when that day arrives I
have an efficient procedure in place for getting my warning data
circulated to people who can make effective use of it.

       Now that I have my earthquake alert Web site fairly well
organized I am beginning efforts to put together such an informal
global warning program.  I believe that I can sometimes provide
people with perhaps 24 to 48 hours notice that a destructive
earthquake may be about to occur and roughly how destructive it
is likely to be.

       Each of the Newsgroup advisories that I post represents a
step in the development of that program.  I am evaluating the
feedback which I am getting from other members of the scientific
community regarding my Newsgroup advisories, my Web site alerts,
and my e-mail advisories.  I am attempting to gradually improve
the advisories so that the information which they contain is more
understandable and useful to seismologist and government
officials.  And I am trying to develop more timely and effective
means of circulating the advisories.  24 to 48 hours advance
warning before an earthquake is not much time to work with!

COMMENT:  It would not be possible for me to tell with any
certainty if the 11/8/97 earthquake in China was the one
responsible for the warning signal which I detected on 11/6/97.
I can only propose that at this time that the earthquake appears
to be a good candidate.

MY EARTHQUAKE ALERT PAGE

http://www.webcom.com/quakenet/members/solutions/quakealert.html
(or) http://www.quakenet.org/members/solutions/quakealert.html

HOW PSYCHIC HUMANS AND ANIMALS PREDICT EARTHQUAKES

       This is a three part theoretical report which discusses
that subject.

http://www.webcom.com/quakenet/members/solutions/126sfp.html
(or) http://www.quakenet.org/members/solutions/126sfp.html

       All of the information in this present notice represents
expressions of personal opinion.