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CIA: Nations not ready for Y2K 
By Reuters
Special to CNET NEWS.COM 
May 5, 1998, 2:15 p.m. PT 
URL: http://www.news.com/News/Item/0,4,21806,00.html 

WASHINGTON--Many countries appear ill prepared for the disruption to 
basic services that the Year 2000 computer glitch may cause, the head of 
the Central Intelligence Agency office studying the issue said today. 

"We're concerned about the potential disruption of power grids,
telecommunications, and banking services," among other possible fallout,
especially in countries already torn by political tensions, Sherry Burns
said. 

In an interview with Reuters, she said CIA systems engineers and
intelligence analysts were focusing beyond the technical problem of
reprogramming computers to recognize dates on January 1, 2000. 

Instead, the spy agency has begun to collect and analyze information on
preparations for the "social, political, and economic tumult" that could
flow from interruptions of essential services in some fragile societies. 

Millions of computers and embedded chips--some central to financial
markets, air traffic control systems, and even running elevators and
heating systems in office buildings--cannot distinguish between 1900 and
2000 because years have been expressed in two-digit shorthand in old
programming. 

The glitch, known as the Y2K bug, may trigger widespread disruptions
because not all computers will be fixed by December 31, 1999. 

With the world's computer networks largely linked, the use of data that 
has been converted to the new millennium standard improperly--or not 
converted at all--could infect newly reprogrammed systems, Burns said. 

According to the CIA assessment, the threat of turmoil is greatest among
those unaware of the key role that bits and bytes play in providing
essential services and bringing goods to markets, even in less developed
countries. 

"There is very little realization that there will be disruption" of basic
services as some computers shut down or go haywire, even among business
leaders, Burns said. 

"As you start getting out into the population, I think most people are
again assuming that things are going to operate the way they always 
have," she said. "That is not going to be the case." 

Many governments are "unprepared for what could potentially be some 
fairly tough circumstances," she added. 

In an initial effort to gauge preparations, the CIA received a wide range
of feedback last year, not all of it very encouraging, Burns said. 

One overseas contact said his country would be safe because it used a
"different calendar." Others acknowledged the issue was not on their 
radar scope. Someone from a Middle Eastern country told the CIA not to 
worry about the millennium bug. 

"When we see it, we'll spray for it," Burns paraphrased that source as
saying. 

She said Canada, Britain, and Australia were about six months behind the
United States in preparing their systems for the switch, and this was the
group in the best shape. 

The rest of western Europe, led by the Scandinavians, came next, six to
nine months behind the United States. 

Europe's job is compounded by the need to reprogram millions of computers
for next January's introduction in 11 countries of the euro, the new
unified currency. 

The CIA felt Europe probably would be unable to complete both 
reprogramming jobs "effectively" in time, Burns said. 

Japan, China, Hong Kong, and most other Pacific Rim countries were "maybe
nine months to a year behind in terms of where the work should be," Burns
said. She put Russia in the same category. 

Latin America was "way behind the power curve," added Burns, who reports 
to CIA Chief Information Officer John Dahms, the person responsible for
maintenance of information systems. 

As part of the agency's increased interest in the Y2K program, some CIA
employees have been briefed on preparing themselves individually for
potential fallout. 

They were being advised to pay their bills early in December 1999 to 
avoid possible processing problems, keep cash on hand in case automatic 
teller machines failed, and lay in extra blankets in case of a blackout 
on a cold New Year's Eve, Burns said. 

Story Copyright � 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. 
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