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Article #200

Re: a note on the real estate bubble

#200
From: arminius
Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 12:21
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"arthur wouk" <awouk@blackhole.nyx.net> wrote in message
news:1115764822.216356@irys.nyx.net...
> and the man guilty of aiding and abetting.
>
>
http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=42815#top_nav1_advisors_contactsa30bd2
>
> Guest Commentary, by David J. Taffi
>
> Destroying the American Dream
>
> May 7, 2005
>
> David Taffi works in Risk Management and Insurance Administration
> Services for Taub Associates in the Los Angeles area.
>
> Well he's done it.  I didn't want to believe it, but it's true.
> Greenspan of course has transmogrified attractive interest rates of
> recent years into outrageously negative real interests for so long
> that he has nursed into being a virtual Godzilla of real estate
> speculation the likes we have not seen since Og traded a club and
> mammoth skin for his friend's cave. Welcome to LA's housing nightmare.
>
> Well, what exactly did he do?  Only destroy the American Dream for
> many, that's all.  Yes, I know, I can always afford a house in
> Oklahoma, provided I can find a job that's one step above the Quickie
> Mart. (No offense to Oklahoma, as you have lots of land, or to
> Quickie-Mart workers for that matter as your work is more respectable
> than counterfeiting.)  What I'm talking about are places on the coasts
> where a lot of people have no choice but to live and work.
>
> When Alan and his merry band of counterfeiters pursued a policy of
> "making the world safe for speculators" at the expense of working,
> middle class, and yes, even upper middle class people (100k a year is
> not sufficient income for a first time homebuyer in LA) he destroyed
> the value of their savings and returns on their labor.
>
> The new rules of the game are simply this;  "He who speculates first
> wins."   And those who have assets to begin with are in the best
> position to speculate first when the conditions for speculation are
> risk free as opposed to those who are just getting started in life and
> are scrimping and saving for that 20% down payment, as in the old
> days.
>
> So the rich get richer, and you can finish the sentence.  When budding
> LA real estate tycoons in the making rapidly piece together, 3, 5, 10
> residential houses at inflated prices, and then raise the rental
> rates, as what can happen in a difficult supply-demand situation in
> LA, not only does the entire cost structure of the rental market
> increase to the detriment of working people, but there are now fewer
> available homes for people who just need a place to raise their
> families.  Result, rewarding speculators at the expense of everyone
> else.   Great, just great.
>
> Yes, life is unfair, but for Alan's gang of monetary inflationists,
> it's OK as long as it's unfair in your favor.  Of course he had lots
> of help from his friends.  With unlimited amounts of credit, lax
> lending standards, and with the loan originators having no moral
> hazard to contend with as they dump their real estate paper onto the
> back of Alan's credit inflation Godzilla monster, Fannie Mae, the rich
> do indeed get richer, as this credit machine moves into hyperspace.
> Question:  was Fannie Mae created to help lower income households
> obtain credit?  Just checking.
>
> Oh, did I forget to mention that easy Al tells us it's very difficult
> to know when you have a bubble?
>
> Well, I can tell you Al, when you have a bubble.  You have a bubble,
> when you destroy the value of a currency, and subsequently the rate of
> return on investment assets goes to zero when your money becomes
> worthless.  Seems fairly basic. Economics is the science of allocation
> of scarce resources.  When one commodity, such as a currency, is
> unlimited and free, the price of everything else priced in that
> currency skyrockets. Hence a bubble.
>
> Of course, if the goal is to destroy a currency with inflation, then
> perhaps there is no bubble, as the asset has simply been re-priced to
> reflect its value relative to the depreciated currency.  One person's
> bubble is another's fair price.  The chumps are the ones on the
> outside looking in. Yes, it all makes sense to me now.  Thick skulled
> Og had it right all along.  If all my assets were in caves and clubs
> and skins as opposed to abundant currency seashells washing up free
> for the taking on the seashore, there would be no inflation or
> bubble.  I'd simply trade one cave for another and I'd be no worse off
> for it.  In a barter economy, rarely is anyone cheated by the
> counterfeiters. A cave is a cave; even our friend Og can spot a fake
> cave.
>
> Did I mention something about changing the rules of the game?  No
> matter.  No matter that the central banker has decided to pick winners
> and create losers by changing the rules of the game on an inherently
> uneven playing field.  No matter that he has destroyed the rates of
> return on investment through excess liquidity (monetary inflation) and
> destroyed the value of savers money in the process.
>
> Let's recap; if you're running a fiat currency regime you better make
> sure your interest rate bite matches your interest rate bark.
> Otherwise, Godzilla is gonna eat you for lunch.
>
> So, yes, Alan, congratulations by making the world safe for
> speculators and enriching the few at the expense of many, by
> encouraging the misallocation of capital and punishing savers, by
> destroying the returns of labor in relation to the returns of
> financial speculation.  Yes, Alan, for many, you have destroyed the
> American Dream.  Go east young man, go east young woman, but not too
> far.  Be sure to stop somewhere in the middle!
>
> Opinions expressed are not necessarily those of David W. Tice &
> Associates, LLC. The opinions are subject to change, are not
> guaranteed and should not be considered recommendations to buy or sell
> any security.
> -- 
> getting out of bed in the morning is an act of false confidence
> - jules feifer
> to email me, delete blackhole. from my return address
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Reply-To: "arminius" <richard norton@cybertrails.com>
From: "arminius" <richard norton@cybertrails.com>
Newsgroups: fl.general,az.general,az.politics,alt.california
References: <1115764822.216356@irys.nyx.net>
Subject: Re:  a note on the real estate bubble
Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 07:21:16 -0500
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