🚀 go-pugleaf

David Nebenzahl <nobody@but.us.chickens> wrote:

>Where do you get this stuff, David? Are you part of a group that smokes 
>a lot of dope, then plays some kind of future-modeling RPG or something? 
>Sounds like it.

Yeah, those Balkan music camps are full of pot smokers with wild ideas.  
Actually, they are, but that's another story...

I'm looking at trends, and I've noticed some fundamental changes in people's 
behavior.  The economy as we knew it is not coming back anytime soon.  

Again, as I said, as people age they buy less stuff.  This is why radio 
and TV advertisers don't aim ads at people over age 50.  It's too hard to get 
them to buy things.  

Driving is down.  Notice that the "Mother's Day Spike" in gasoline prices 
hasn't happened yet.  Gasoline is still averaging about $3.03, just as it was 
in the dead of winter.  

Telecommuting is up.  Where companies used to require people to come to work 
even if they could do things from home, this is no longer the case as 
companies scale back their office space and no longer have space for all 
their staff.  Notice how many empty offices exist in SF and SJ, and yet there 
are still plenty of tech companies around.  The office glut has gotten so bad 
that in SF many of those buildings are being turned into condos.  The real 
estate companies are aware that the business sector is not coming back anytime 
soon.  

What does seem to be up is leisure.  People are still going out to bars and 
restaurants, and the Bay Bridge is loaded with cars on any weekend.  So, the 
service sector, at least the food and beverage part, may hold its own.  But 
even that sector has its hits and misses.  Willie Brown reported the other day 
that North Beach business is way down and some popular spots are open only 2 
or 3 days a week.  

But the retail goods sector is way down, so the retail store jobs and the 
manufacturing and assembly jobs aren't going to be there.  And with that 
people won't be commuting as much.  

While it's true that we've hit 39 million people in Calif and LA has had some 
big growth, we're not going to see the sprawl -- it'll simply cost too much 
for people to live too far from work.