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   The New York Times
   _________________________________________________________________

   August 22, 2003
  
   Conan the Deceiver

   By PAUL KRUGMAN

   T he key moment in Arnold Schwarzenegger's Wednesday press conference
   came when the bodybuilder who would be governor brushed aside
   questions with the declaration, "The public doesn't care about
   figures." This was "fuzzy math" on steroids Mr. Schwarzenegger was, in
   effect, asserting that his celebrity gives him the right to fake his
   way through the election. Will he be allowed to get away with it?

   Reporters were trying to press Mr. Schwarzenegger for the specifics so
   obviously missing from his budget plans. But while he hasn't said much
   about what he proposes to do, the candidate has nonetheless already
   managed to say a number of things that his advisers must know are true
   lies.

   Even Mr. Schwarzenegger's description of the state economy is pure
   fantasy. He claims that the state is bleeding jobs because of its
   "hostile environment" toward business, and that California residents
   groan under an oppressive tax burden: "From the time they get up in
   the morning and flush the toilet, they're taxed."

   One look at the numbers tells you that his story is fiction. Since the
   mid-1990's California has added jobs considerably faster than the
   nation as a whole. And while the state has been hit hard by the
   technology slump, it has done no worse than other parts of the
   country. A recent study found that California's tech sector had
   actually weathered the slump better than its counterpart in Texas.
   Meanwhile, California isn't a high-tax state: through the 1990's,
   state and local taxes as a share of personal income more or less
   matched the national average, and with the recent plunge in revenue
   they're now probably below average.

   What is true is that California's taxes are highly inequitable: thanks
   to Proposition 13, some people pay ridiculously low property taxes.
   Warren Buffett, supposedly acting as Mr. Schwarzenegger's economic
   adviser, offered the perfect example: he pays $14,401 in property
   taxes on his $500,000 home in Omaha, but only $2,264 on his $4 million
   home in Orange County. But the candidate quickly made it clear that
   Mr. Buffett should stick to the script and not mention inconvenient
   facts.

   When Mr. Schwarzenegger threw his biceps into the ring, he seemed to
   think that, like George W. Bush, he could adopt a what-me-worry
   approach to budget deficits. "The first thing that you have to do is
   not worry about should we cut the programs or raise the taxes and all
   those things," he told Fox News. Then someone must have explained to
   him that a governor, unlike a president, can't just decide that red
   ink isn't a problem. In fact, one reason Gray Davis is so unpopular is
   that, unlike the challengers, he has actually had to take painful
   steps to close the budget gap. Although news reports continue,
   inexplicably, to talk about a $38 billion deficit, the projected gap
   for next year is only $8 billion.

   So Mr. Schwarzenegger now says that he will balance the budget, while
   bravely declaring that he is against any unpleasant measures this
   might involve. He wants to roll back the increase in the vehicle
   license fee, which was crucial to the state's recent fiscal progress,
   and he says he won't propose any offsetting tax increases. And while
   these promises mean that he must come up with large spending cuts, he
   refuses to say what he will cut. His excuse is that his advisers
   couldn't make "heads or tails" of the California budget.

   Please. The details are complicated, but the broad picture isn't.
   Education dominates the budget, accounting for more than half of
   general fund spending. Medical care dominates the rest. The last
   remaining big chunk is corrections.

   Yet the candidate says he won't touch education. Sharp cuts in medical
   spending would be not only cruel but foolish, since in many cases they
   would mean losing federal matching funds. And prison spending is
   largely determined by the state's "three strikes" law. In short, he's
   not leveling with voters: there's no way to balance the budget while
   honoring all his promises.

   But the candidate says that specifics don't matter, that the public
   just wants someone "tough enough." Does he really think that voters
   will confuse him with the characters he plays?

   So here's the question: Can a celebrity candidate muscle his way into
   public office without ever being held accountable for his
   statements?
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   I prefer a man who will burn the flag and then wrap himself in the 
   Constitution to a man who will burn the Constitution and then wrap 
   himself in the flag."       Rep. Craig Washington