🚀 go-pugleaf

in article G894oC.oyu@thunder.sbay.org, Ian Kluft  wrote:

> And this wasn't for lack of predictions about the Year 2000.  It was sort of
> a magent for predictions.  According to 1970's predictions, the world would
> have run out of oil by 2000.  And lots of other calamities too.

Of course, in the forties and fifties, we were going to be out of oil by the
seventies. The shortage we ended up with in the seventies turned out to be
politically-induced rather than a matter of actual supply problems.

> So, with the 1950's picture of 2000 being so far off, I won't hazard a
> guess of where things will be in 2050.

I very well remember 1950's image of 2000. It was no more prophetic than
random chance. All of our energy was going to come from fusion and solar.
Telephones would all be "videophones". Microprocessors were unknown and they
were not even foreseen. The future was in large, complicated mechanical
devices.

> Things we see as increasing trends
> today could fizzle, or suddenly take off at an exponential rate.  But it's
> a near certainty that 2050 will be dominated by technologies that have
> not yet been invented today, much like 2000 was compared with 1950's
> visions of the future.

My observation reveals that the invention or discovery of one key technology
changes the entire course of technological development. Without knowing
about future existence and significance of the microprocessor,
prognosticators were unable to foresee the direction our development
actually took.

That could easily happen again. One pivotal breakthrough in the next few
years, and our entire technological course could make a radical emphasis
shift. Knowing that, I'm not even going to hazard any guesses. In ten years,
it could be a whole new ballgame.

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