🚀 go-pugleaf

On Fri, 31 Jan 2003 01:35:18 -0000, Kenneth Crudup <kenny@panix.com> wrote:
>In article <mejj3vcvbegojirtn6ffvhhlipg4g30tim@4ax.com>, Newsgroup says:
>
>>OK, suppose you tell me when the SoCal real estate price bubble is
>>going to burst? I want to time my next home purchase to occure just
>>AFTER the prices plummet.
>
>Honestly? I'm kindasortahoping they all come a'tumblin' down in about
>three years; I should be ready to buy around then.

You've never seen the cartoon of the fellow with the long white beard
entitled "Portrait of a Young Boy Waiting For Real Estate Prices To Come
Down?"

But seriously, while there was some crash in the early '90s, and too-rapid
appreciation is a danger sign, what will most likely happen is the prices
will plateau, but terms will get easier.  That is, terms in the sense of 
low down payments, interest rates will probably start rising late in the
year, depending on events.  The low end of the market will not suffer
so much in any price deflation, the real deals will be in the over 400K zone.
Condos will probably increase in price relative to single family homes,
as they inevitably do due to income ratio requirements causing affordability
to worsen as interest rates rise.

The more reasonable attack would be to be aware and informed about what is
available at what terms and grab anything you can get your hands on that you 
would be happy being stuck in for at least 5 years.  Work out the math, the
less you put down the greater your rate of return if and when you sell, and 
the easier to just walk away as though it were an apartment if the economy 
tanks and you lose your job and can't get another.

jg
-- 
These opinions are my own. 
http://www.garry.to                                       Oracle and unix guy.
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