🚀 go-pugleaf

In article <37013@uflorida.cis.ufl.edu> jfh@reef.cis.ufl.edu (James F. Hranicky) writes:
>Anyone here heard of Ludwig von Mises? His theory of the business cycle
>seems to be the only one which holds water:

  An economic theory (or any scientific theory) really only "holds
  water" if it has reliable predictive value.    So use Mises' theory
  to predict something like inflation/unemployment/GDP, etc for, say,
  1993 or 1994. (or even 1992, i.e, what will it be for December?)


>The Fed just recently cut interest rates again, insuring that the ten-dollar
>bill you have in your wallet will be worth less tomorrow.

  The Fed has just engaged in the longest series of interest rate
  cuts in history yet we currently have a very low rate of inflation
  AND the money supply has hardly grown at all.  Seems Mises' theory
  is a litttle weak on predictions.  Moreover, leading indicators
  of inflation like gold prices and long-bond-rates have been continuously
  dropping, not a good sign for your theory, either. 

  
>Cool, huh?

  If it was really cool it would be predictive, and instead of posting to
  Usenet you'd be making a killing in the commodities markets.  I.e., if
  you're so smart how come you're not rich?


---peter