🚀 go-pugleaf

Few investors this week had the investment foresight of the mavens at
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan. The stock market as a whole edged lower,
ending a two-week winning streak. For the week, the Dow fell 127.03
points, or 1.6%, closing at 7891.08. Nasdaq fell 11.50 points, or
0.9%, to 1337.52, and the S&P 500 lost 7.02 points, or 0.8%, to 841.15

Monday the Dow lost 159 points, Nasdaq fell 26 points and the S&P 500
lost 15.

Natural gas futures soared on fears that the cold snap across much of
the country could lead to shortages. April natural gas futures gained
$1.30 per mm BTU to $7.62 Monday, and finished the week at $8.10.
Natural gas stocks were only modestly higher. Anadarko Petroleum rose
$1.08 to $46.76 Monday, but closed Friday at $46.08.

One company that benefited, surprisingly, from the natural gas rise
was Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, with the fetching stock symbol
"POT." Potash rose $2.85 to $59.96 Wednesday and ended the week at
$61.67. Natural gas is a fertilizer input, so normally high gas prices
are detrimental to producers of ammonia and other fertilizers. Potash
had been long natural gas futures as a hedge and made a killing when
gas prices soared. The company said Wednesday it sold its 2003 futures
contracts, modestly confessing that it had only been trying to
stabilize input costs.

Terra Nitrogen is more typical. The stock fell $1.11 to $4.90 Friday.
The company ceased production at its Blytheville, Ark. facility and
has placed it on standby because of high natural gas prices. A
Verdigris, Okla., ammonia plant was also placed on standby.

Trucking stocks were lower after a Bear Stearns downgrade. The
brokerage noted that the trucking sector materially underperformed the
broader market at the beginning of the last Gulf War as oil prices
spiked from $23 to $41 per barrel. J.B. Hunt Transport Services fell
$2.13 to $24.02 Monday, ending the week at $24.54.

The Index of Investor Optimism, a joint effort of UBS and the Gallup
Organization, fell to an all-time low of 9 in February (through
February 16), UBS said Monday. The index had a baseline of 124 when it
was established in 1996, and peaked at 178 in January 2000.

Royal Ahold tumbled $6.53 to $4.16. The company Monday it overstated
earnings in 2001 and 2002 by at least $500 million and its leading
executives will resign, raising fresh fears over corporate accounting
methods. The Netherlands-based company generates more than half its
sales in the United States, where it owns regional chains Stop & Shop,
Giant-Landover, Giant-Carlisle, Tops, BI-LO and Bruno's. Royal Ahold
ended the week at $3.70.

VaxGen lost a like sum, falling $6.16 to $6.86. The company said Phase
III trials of its Aidsvax did not show a statistically significant
reduction of HIV infection within the study population as a whole,
which was the primary endpoint of the trial. VaxGen ended the week at
$3.76.

Wal-Mart Stores fell $1.26 to $47.64. The company said February
same-store sales might be at the lower end of its estimates of 2
percent to 4 percent growth. The company cited severe winter weather
in the Northeast during the Presidents' Day weekend. The stock ended
the week at $48.06.

Stocks fell sharply Tuesday morning after a very weak consumer
confidence report but rallied thereafter, the Dow gaining 51 points
for the session and climbing almost 190 points from the morning's low.
Nasdaq added 6 points and the S&P 500 was up 5.

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell to 64.0
in February from 78.8 in January, with current conditions spilling to
61.6 from 75.3 and expectations falling to 65.6 from 81.1.

Solid earnings supported Engineered Support Systems, which added $3.69
to $35.78, ending the week at $36.11. The company reported
first-quarter net income from continuing operations of 50 cents a
share, a nickel above First Call estimates of 45 cents. The company
raised its 2003 revenue target to $475-$485 million from $460 million.

Overstock.com fell $3.26 to $14.85. The company said analysts'
first-quarter earnings estimates for the company "may prove aggressive
given the present uncertain business and retail environments."
Overstock.com ended the week at $12.70.

Annuity and Life Re fell $2.09 to 76 cents a share Tuesday. The
insurer said it expects to report significant losses in the fourth
quarter due to in part to adverse mortality rates. Conversely, funeral
home operator Stewart Enterprises fell $1.19 to $3.60 Monday after
saying it expects to report first quarter earnings of 9 cents per
share, at the low end of its previously announced guidance of 9-12
cents. For the fiscal year, the funeral home operator lowered its EPS
forecast to 30-35 cents from 40-43 cents. The insurer says volumes are
up but the funeral home says volumes are down. Hmmmm. H&R Block added
$1.31 to $38.51 Tuesday. The income tax preparer said it expects to
exceed its previously announced earnings guidance for fiscal 2003. The
company now sees earnings of $3.37-$3.52 per share, excluding one-time
charges for a legal settlement. Analysts surveyed by First Call
expected $3.35 per share. H&R Block was up to $40.57 by Friday.

Fleming Cos. fell $1.12 to $1.85. The company, which had supplied
groceries to bankrupt Kmart, said it will cut 1,800 jobs, or 15% of
the positions in its continuing operations. Fleming said that a
previously announced inquiry by the SEC has moved to a formal
investigation. Fleming ended the week at $2.07.

Wednesday the Dow fell 102 points, Nasdaq was down 25 points and the
S&P 500 lost 11 points. The S&P March future filled a gap that formed
on Tuesday's down opening between 831.00 and 826.50, trading as low as
825.50 before closing at 827.80.

"I have rarely seen this much pessimism not turn into a rally. But it
is just hard to be positive," said Mike Weiner, managing director of
equities at Banc One Investment Advisors in Columbus, Ohio.

Hewlett-Packard fell $2.81 to $15.37 as the second most active NYSE
issue. H-P reported first-quarter net income of 29 cents a share,
excluding one-time items, topping First Call expectations of 28 cents.
Revenue of $17.9 billion trailed the $18.5 billion estimate reported
by Multex.com, however. The stock closed at $15.85 Friday. CEO Carly
Fiorina received a $2.9 million bonus for fiscal year 2002, according
to a regulatory filing with the SEC. Fiorina didn't receive a bonus in
fiscal 2001.

Allegheny Energy lost $2.65 to $5.55. It will sell its Conemaugh
generating station to UGI for $51.25 million. Allegheny also said it
closed $2.4 billion of new bank credit facilities for itself and two
subsidiaries. Fitch said the credit facilities avert potential
bankruptcy and provides sufficient liquidity to carry on operations,
but the terms will pressure the companies to sell assets and find new
sources of capital. Allegheny ended the week at $5.99.

Thursday the Dow gained 78 points, with Nasdaq up 20 and the S&P 500
up 9.

New home sales plunged 15.1% in January, the biggest monthly decline
since January 1994. Brian Wesbury, chief economist for GKST Economics
in Chicago, put into context the plunging new home sales data versus
the previously reported all-time record level of existing home sales
in January. "A new home sale is reported when a contract is signed or
a deposit is accepted. An existing home sale is counted only at
closing, which could be 30 days or more after the contract was signed.
As a result, new home sales are more contemporary data, while existing
home sales can lag," Wesbury said.

Homebuilders were not all that impacted by the report. Ryland Group
was typical, falling 75 cents to $41.23 Thursday, and ending the week
at $41.30.

Longs Drug Stores fell $2.07 to $13.44. Longs said it will cut 170
jobs, primarily in California, and change pharmacy technology
information systems. Longs sees first-quarter net income of 10-14
cents a share. Analysts surveyed by First Call expected 29 cents.
Longs closed at $13.81 Friday.

Friday the Dow added 6 points, Nasdaq gained 13 and the S&P was up 3.

First Horizon Pharmaceutical tumbled $3.74 to $2.06. It lowered its
first-quarter outlook due in part to fewer than expected prescriptions
of Sular, a hypertension treatment. The company roughly expects to
break even in the first quarter, excluding reorganization costs and
acquisition charges. Analysts surveyed by First Call expected a profit
of 11 cents a share.

Novell lost 48 cents to $2.60. First-quarter revenue fell to $260
million from $278 million a year ago, as IT business in North America
slowed more than the company expected.

Gap was down $1.78 to $13.04 as the second most active NYSE issue. Gap
reported fourth-quarter net income of 27 cents a share, matching First
Call estimates. But CFO Byron Pollitt said February same-store sales
have been short of projections. "We are seeing some reluctance to buy
at full price and that is what we are trying to understand," Pollitt
said during a conference call with analysts.

Symantec fell $6.89 to $40.47 after it told analysts in a conference
call that the bulk of this year's earnings would be realized in the
second half of the year.

Next week, personal income and personal spending for February will be
reported Monday. Income is expected to match January's 0.4% gain, but
the consumer is expected to have hunkered down, with spending rising
just 0.2% versus a gain of 0.9% in January.

The Institute of Supply Management reports its February index Monday
as well, with a reading of 52.5 expected, down from 53.9 in January
but above the Maginot line of 50 that divides expansion from
contraction.

Wednesday the Federal Reserve reports its Beige Book of economic
activity.

Thursday, the revised fourth-quarter non-farm productivity report will
be released. Instead of a decline of 0.2%, as previously reported,
economists are expecting an increase of 0.6%.

Friday the February non-farm payroll report is due. It is expected to
show an increase of 20,000 in payrolls. But the unemployment rate is
also expected to have ticked higher, to 5.9% versus 5.7% in January.

Even if it was an accident, hats off to Potash. Few people who have
been trying to make money these days have succeeded. -- Associated
Press, United Press International and Market News International
contributed to this report. -- edited by Stewart Winograd

-------------------------------------------------
@Close Market Summary is a FREE daily email service of
DTN Market Access.

Copyright 2003, DTN Market Access. All rights reserved.
To subscribe, visit http://www.marketaccessmail.com.