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USA TODAY  9/26/2003 

2 years in a row, more in poverty 
By Peronet Despeignes, USA TODAY


More than a million Americans sank into poverty last year, an annual
Census report is expected to show today. It would be the first time in
nearly a decade that the number of poor rose two years in a row.

Experts at the University of Michigan, the conservative-leaning
Heritage Foundation and the liberal-leaning Center on Budget and
Policy Priorities said they expected official figures to show the U.S.
poverty rate growing from 11.7% in 2001 to around 12.3% in 2002. Their
predictions generally are accurate within a few decimal points.

The figures were previewed three weeks ago by a Census survey testing
a new methodology. Today's figures are considered more authoritative
and comprehensive. They're the ones used by the government in
calculating unemployment and setting policies.

Although the economy is showing signs of improvement, poverty rates
lag behind economic shifts. Today's report will give Democrats
ammunition to attack President Bush's stewardship of the economy.

The official definition of poverty varies by family size and age and
can change annually with the cost of living. In 2001, a family of two
parents under 65 and two children younger than 18 were considered poor
with a household income below $12,207. That year, 32.9 million people
were defined as poor.

David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's, said, "Clearly, with
a hiring slump going on, you'd expect poverty to get worse."

The economy was stagnant in 2002 amid layoffs and spending cuts by
employers and state governments. More people were unemployed for
longer periods, and more saw their jobless benefits run out.

But Robert Rector, who studies poverty at the Heritage Foundation,
says the 2002 poverty rate reported today is still likely to be close
to a 40-year low. The recession, job losses and slumping income of the
past few years have not completely erased the gains of the 1990s boom,
he said.

And fresher indicators suggest the economy is staging a comeback:
Retail sales are rising, corporate profits are rebounding, investing
is picking up, and the stock market has rallied.

But a hiring rebound remains little more than a forecast - and a shaky
prospect that has proven elusive for nearly three years. Even if
economic growth continues to accelerate, it might be too uncertain and
subpar to encourage a quick hiring revival, or to stop the rise in
unemployment and poverty.

For the first time in 15 years, the poverty report is being released
on a Friday. That has prompted charges by Democrats that the White
House hopes to see the bad news buried in little-seen Friday night and
Saturday news coverage.

Census officials strongly deny the accusation.

"The news conference was moved from Sept. 23 to Sept. 26 because the
professional staff asked for extra time to process this round of
data," Census spokesman Lawrence Neal said. "The Sunday public affairs
shows will make a meal of the data and spit them back into the news
cycle on Monday. ... The notion that we should, could or would
suppress these numbers doesn't pass the laugh test."
 
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http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2003-09-26-poverty-usat_x.htm