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Article #61

Re: New Tropical URL (my homepage!)

#61
From: A.K. Cruiser
Date: Sat, 06 Jul 1996 00:00
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In article <toddg.8818.31DDD64F@weatherman.com>, toddg@weatherman.com (Todd Gross) writes:
> 
>>http://www2.smart.net/~gdmgeg
> 
> 
> This is fantastic! 
> 
> I have a question though.. I saw your graphical output.. with cryptic 
> designations for each model (?) where was TRANTECH, what were the 
> designations, and their significances. The graphical output is extremely 
> important..that is what many folks will look for , and I think you should 
> focus work on this end of it to a large degree.. thanks in advance..
> 
> 
> -Todd
> ----------------------------------------
> Todd Gross, Ch. 7 Meteorologist, Boston
> ----------------------------------------

Todd,

Well, I already answered you on the #weather Undernet IRC channel (plug!),
but for those who are also wondering...

The TRANTECH model has several different schemes:
Linear Forecast
Integrated Forecast
Integrated Forecast w/ Persistence
Subjectivly Adjusted Forecast
Discreetly Weighted Forecast
Subjective & Discreet Forecast
Open Analog (currently turned off!)
Ensemble (best guess of all of the above)

The map shows all of the above in different colors with the Ensemble being
in a thicker, red shade.  The NHC official track is also on this map, it is
in a thicker greenish-grey color (at least it was greenish-grey on my
browser... it was supposed to be black!).

Important note:  The TRANTECH plots go out to 120hrs while the NHC plots
only go out to 72hrs!!  For this reason you'll usually see more progression
on the TRANTECH models.

The Ensemble TRANTECH (red line) should be considered the "best guess".
It may "jump" if one of the root models (Linear, Integrated, etc.) drops
the storm for whatever reason (dissipation, no analogs, etc.).  While this
is generally a bad thing for a supposed "best guess" track, I feel it is
best not to resolve this "problem", so that you, the user, can get a TRUE
representation of the forecast track.

Also, note that there are no intensities on the track chart.  My apologies
for this, but I can't seem to find any way to include them (the color
scheme is already used to delineate the model schemes).  Please refer to
the standard textual TRANTECH output for the intensity forecasts.  I may
figure out some way to graphically represent this without causing too much
trouble for myself (the grafix are done manually and my time is already
strapped to get these products to you in a timely manner).  If anyone has
any ideas please let me know!!

Thanks and I hope you all have fun visiting my site... apparently (so far
as I know) the ONLY site on the WWW displaying a hurricane model (with
the exception of my friendly mirror sites, of course!)!!


					-Gary

http://www2.smart.net/~gdmgeg

P.S.  Updates are generally done only once a day (sorry, I have a full
time job during the day) generally between 6 and 8PM (Eastern Time).  On
the weekends updates *may* be more frequent, and when a hurricane
threatens the U.S. mainland, I will TRY to update in the early morning
and late night as well.  My apologies if the once-a-day updates seem too
infrequent, but it's all I can do right now!
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From: grayg@woods.uml.edu (A.K. Cruiser)
Subject: Re: New Tropical URL (my homepage!)
Date: 1996/07/06
Message-ID: <1996Jul6.000918.1@aspen>
X-Deja-AN: 163955437
references: <1996Jul5.185713.1@aspen> <toddg.8818.31DDD64F@weatherman.com>
organization: Univ. of Massachusetts-Lowell
newsgroups: ne.weather,sci.geo.meteorology,bit.listserv.wx-talk