🚀 go-pugleaf

<Newsgroups: net.rec.bridge>	<Subject: minor play problem>

N    E     S    W     (N-S VUL)	IMPS
1c   1s    p    2nt
p    3s    p    4s

            (Dummy), W: Ax
                        Qx
                        AJ9
S exposed:              KJ8643         N exposed:
7c, 9c                                       Qc, Ac
                You, E: KJT98x
                        Jx
                        Q8xx
                        2

Opening lead 7C. North wins QC and continues with the A, south 
following with the 9.
*****************************************************************
There is some info missing. What do they lead from three small?
More importantly, what is their opening no trump range?

I will assume they lead middle from three small and they open 1NT with 15-17.

LHO had three clubs, in particular 975.
RHO does not have both heart honors. Two reasons. RHO would have
cashed them before trying the AC. LHO signalled for hearts with the 9C.
If LHO has a heart honor, the KD is with RHO, else LHO has a negative dbl.
LHO is xx-xxxxx-xxx-xxx, x-xxxxxx-xxx-xxx, x-xxxxx-xxxx-xxx
RHO is xxx-xxxx-Kxx-AQT, xxxx-xxx-Kxx-AQT, xxxx-xxxx-Kx-AQT

Should I finesse spades? Let's see.

Can LHO have the AH? Very doubtful if holding a stiff spade because that
looks like a fine negative double. I would expect a negative dbl even
if holding two spades, AH, and 5+ hearts more often than not. I consider 
this unlikely then.

So if RHO has the AH, that accounts for 13 points. No room for the QS.
So I anticipate LHO to be Qx-Kxxxx-xxx-xxx. Following through on this,
I cash two spades ending in dummy expecting the Q to drop. If it does I
run clubs to my hearts(pun intended) content, overruffing when necessary 
and using the AD to continue(after drawing any possible remaining trumps).

If the QS doesn't drop, but spades break 3-2, I run clubs again and
use the AD to run some more after RHO ruffs(pitching hearts first)

If RHO shows up with four spades(unlikely in my opinion), I pitch one heart
on a club. Try another club overruffing RHO. AD. Another club pitching my
last heart as RHO ruffs with the QS(note RHO must ruff these clubs else 
the hand is over if I pitch too many losers). Now I must tackle the diamond
suit for one loser from my hand, Q8x, opposite J9 with four to the KT 
outstanding. Lets see what we know. LHO must have the AH else RHO had a 15
count. LHO had a stiff spade but couldn't find a call. 
Is LHO x-Axxxx-xxxx-xxx or x-Axxxxx-xxx-xxx?
Is RHO Qxxx-Kxxx-Kx-AQT or Qxxx-Kxx-Kxx-AQT?
I find either hard to believe, but if I get this far and haven't made 
the contract yet, I'll play for 3-3 diamonds. Only a hunch. If LHO is
bad enough not to find a negative double with either hand, then
LHO is bad enough to think they need both hearts and diamonds to make
a negative double. Hence LHO has only three diamonds.

Am I down 1?

Now, what happens if they open 16-18 point no trumps?
That means RHO most likely has QS, AH, KD, AQC. LHO only has the KH.
My above analysis indicates I think RHO is a heavy favorite 
to hold the QS. Should I play for 3-2 spades with the Q onside?
I still have the same diamond guess guess if spades are 4-1.
Do I finesse? A definite no. If thats the position(spades 3-2, Q onside)
the above line works just as well. And the above line drops any honor 
holding by LHO in spades. Once again I'll play for 3-3 diamonds if
necessary due to the failure to negative double with x-Kxxxx-xxxx-xxx.
Though I wouldn't be confident. I'd watch closely for a count signal by
LHO to maybe change my mind.

Robert