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Article #386

Re: Prediction on the future of cellphones

#386
From: John Fulton
Date: Fri, 10 May 2002 20:50
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In message <3cdaf62f.4265202@news.caverock.net.nz> -
tennyson@caverock.net.nz.NO_SPAM (Snoopy) writes:
:>
:>On Thu, 9 May 2002 22:59:01, jfulton@actrix.gen.nz (John Fulton)
:>wrote:
:>>
:>>
:>>While CDMA may be the technically more advances, GSM has not been staying
:>>still.  Most people who use a mobile want to either text or talk.  Most people
:>>are not worried about internet connectivity.  I certainly could not give a
:>>stuff about mobile connectivity to the internet - it is so much hype without
:>>any real commercial application that is worth paying good money for.  There
:>>may be a few specialised applications where it fits, but in general these are
:>>few and far between!
:>>
:>>
:>Satellite navigation delivered via cellphone (delivered as series of
:>tiny maps in your display screen)?
:>Graphical weather forecasts?
:>Ability to peruse a parts catelogue on site so that you can order the
:>part down from the warehouse in Auckland asap?
:>Perhaps cricket is one game that one could follow by 3G phone?   You
:>could have a graphical display showing dots as the position of the
:>fielders.  A linear representaion of where each ball was hit?
:>What about security.  The ability to offer optical eye pattern
:>recognition and transmissionas a security feature?

Most of this is just hype for the ordinary person, and is probably not worth
paying good money for.
:>>
:>>
:>>Hype is a wonderful thing as Microsoft have found out and capitalised upon!  
:>>I am sure that Telecom is trying to do the same thing!
:>>
:>>
:>You mean that Telecom is pushing CDMA as superior, when practically it
:>isn't?

For most ractical purposes there s little to choose between CDMA and GSM.  For
the ordianry person who wants a phone to talk with, then there is nothing in
ti.  If you want hype then by all means go for CDMA, but you will be limited
in the countries that you can globally roam with it.
:>>
:>>
:>>I don't think that bandwidth is an issue for most people, and that is where
:>>the market is.  
:>>
:>>
:>But maybe the demand for bandwidth won't be customer driven?  Maybe it
:>will be application (supply side) driven as the software writers write
:>applications that are more and more resouce greedy.

Here again I do not believe that the "ordianry bloke" wants this service.  It
is not going to be the "killer application" which is where the real mopney is!
:>>
:>>
:>>The mass production of an item is essential if it is to become
:>>ubiquitous.  Wide bandwidth to a mobile is not going to be the big seller
:>>that will make our current mobiles obsolete.  There will of course be
:>>advances, but these will be incremental, and targeted at a wide market
:>>segment.
:>>
:>>
:>Perhaps the pure voice bandwidth will be shut down to free up that
:>part of the transmission spectrum and the small minority who use it
:>will be forced to migrate to 3G. SNOOPY

May be, but then users would find something alse to give them the service that
is most useful.  I do not believe that mobile telephone manufacturers are
twits, and they will certainly be market driven!

Regards to you all

John Fulton
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From: jfulton@actrix.gen.nz (John Fulton)
Subject: Re: Prediction on the future of cellphones
Organization: The Fulton Establishment
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