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Article #392Re: Prediction on the future of cellphones
From: John Fulton
Date: Thu, 09 May 2002 22:59
Date: Thu, 09 May 2002 22:59
96 lines
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5534 bytes
In message <3cd9c830.9677052@news.caverock.net.nz> - tennyson@caverock.net.nz.NO_SPAM (Snoopy) writes: :> :>On Thu, 9 May 2002 00:51:13 +1200, "Peter Murray" :><peter.murray@bigfoot.com> wrote: :>> :>> :>>New technology is often restricted by having to be compatible with existing :>>technology, but with cellphones, the network provider just installs the new :>>technology on the cell towers alongside their old system and starts :>>promoting new handsets which can access it. :>> :>> :>So if one phone provider has more towers, we could get stuck with an :>inferior technology system sinmply because the provider with the :>greatest number of towers has more relaying outlets? :> :>Does CDMA have the same 'range' (if that is the right term) as GSM? :>Could it be really as simple as putting up CDMA relayers on the :>existing GSM towers if Vodaphone wanted to migrate to CDMA? Would :>existing resource consents cover such a thing? In New Zealand there is little to pick or shoose between CDMA (Telecom) or GSM (Vodafone) Bothe work, and both offer internet connectivity for those who want it. However if you go travelling GSM will provide you with coverage in more countries than will CDMA. While CDMA may be the technically more advances, GSM has not been staying still. Most people who use a mobile want to either text or talk. Most peole are not worried about internet connectivity. I certainly could not give a stuff about mobile connectivity to the internet - it is so much hype without any real commercial application that is worth paying good money for. There may be a few specialised applications where it fits, but in general these are few and far between! Hype is a wonderful thing as Microsoft have found out and capitalised upon! I am sure that Telecom is trying to do the same thing! :>> :>>From the user's point of view, they don't really care what acronym :>>the technology uses as long as it does :>>what they want (or think they want). :>> :>> :>This remark gets to the heart of what I am trying to get at. :>Broadband technology with cellphones will allow all sorts of things. :>But will people try it because they think they want it, then discard :>it once the novelty has worn off? :> :>Perhaps an analogy might be with the introduction of the first :>generation of cellphones. The number of users has gone up :>dramatically but the spend per average user has gone down. And :>contrary to the doom and gloom merchants, the usage of fixed lines has :>not dropped off. :> :>If people buy a 3G cellphone because they think they might need it, :>will it just languish in the bottom drawer when people find out how :>much it costs to operate it? This might even be the case with the 2G :>phones around at the moment! :> :>Anyone out there own an 027 phone? If so, are you using it as much :>now as in the first month that you bought it? How much more in :>today's dollar terms would you be prepared to pay per month to be able :>to have access to a sophisticated 3G phone system? :>> :>> :>>I predict that the next generation of cell phone handsets will use either a :>>completely different encoding and transmission system offering a much higher :>>bandwidth I don't think that bandwidth is an issue for most people, and that is where the market is. The mass production of an item is essential if it is to become ubiquitous. Wide bandwaidth to a mobile is not going to be the big seller that will make our current mobiles obsolete. There will of course be advances, but these will be incremental, and targeted at a wide market segment. :>> :>> :>That will require lots of investment on behalf of the :>telecommunications companies. :>> :>> :>>or will use two different existing systems in the one handset to :>>provide greater coverage and higher bandwidth. This could even solve the :>>number portability problem. :>> :>Somehow piggyback CDMA on GSM? Is that technically feasible? SNOOPY :> While it is possible to make a phone that will do both CDMA and GSM, I doubt that they will become common. Most people just want a "phone" and anything will do so long as it works and is not too costly. I don't think that wideband will cut the mustard in a mobile! Regards to you all John Fulton
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X-Google-Language: ENGLISH,ASCII-7-bit X-Google-Thread: 106e5e,cb464f807cdeba4d X-Google-Attributes: gid106e5e,public X-Google-Thread: 108c83,cb464f807cdeba4d X-Google-Attributes: gid108c83,public X-Google-ArrivalTime: 2002-05-09 03:59:27 PST Path: arc1-ca.pugleaf.net!archiver1.google.com!news1.google.com!sn-xit-02!supernews.com!cox.net!nntp-relay.ihug.net!ihug.co.nz!usenet.net.nz!newsfeed01.tsnz.net!news02.tsnz.net!not-for-mail Newsgroups: nz.comp,aus.computers From: jfulton@actrix.gen.nz (John Fulton) Subject: Re: Prediction on the future of cellphones Organization: The Fulton Establishment References: <3cd7b485.4388559@news.caverock.net.nz> <ltefducu11s0bu8cqpjlck37lir6ci79c3@4ax.com> <3cd8436d.1424378@news.caverock.net.nz> <QO7C8.1404$A07.210837@news02.tsnz.net> <3cd91f3c@news.nz.asiaonline.net> <3cd9c830.9677052@news.caverock.net.nz> X-Newsreader: EmTec News for OS/2 [version: 4.6g] Lines: 97 Message-ID: <iEsC8.1625$A07.241859@news02.tsnz.net> Date: Thu, 9 May 2002 22:59:01 NNTP-Posting-Host: 203.79.69.243 X-Complaints-To: abuse@tsnz.net X-Trace: news02.tsnz.net 1020941966 203.79.69.243 (Thu, 09 May 2002 22:59:26 NZST) NNTP-Posting-Date: Thu, 09 May 2002 22:59:26 NZST