🚀 go-pugleaf

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News article from The (Portland) Oregonian - August 20, 2007

Analysts this week will start figuring out exactly how much money will
be returned to Oregon taxpayers this fall.

The median kicker refund is expected to be about $285 and the checks
should be mailed around Thanksgiving, providing a boost to retailers and
debt-riddled consumers during the Christmas shopping season.

Under Oregon's unique kicker law, the state must return tax dollars that
exceed budget projections -- assuming the actual tax receipts exceed the
estimate by at least 2 percent.

In the recently concluded business cycle, the actual tax receipts were
more than 20 percent higher than what economists predicted in 2005. At
that time, the state was emerging from the recession from 2001-03 and
didn't anticipate the historic real estate boom of the past two years.

The total amount of the rebate adds up to an estimated $1.165 billion,
according to the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis. The previous record
was $635 million, which was sent to taxpayers in 1999.

While a rebate has been considered a certainty for months, the amount
wasn't locked in until the end of the business day Friday, when state
accountants closed the books for the 2005-07 budget cycle that ended
June 30.

Starting Monday, analysts will start running reports to determine
precisely how much each taxpayer can expect, economist Michael Kennedy
told the Bend Bulletin. State economists will present the kicker figures
to lawmakers Aug. 31 in their regular quarterly revenue forecast.

The total kicker refund for 2007 was actually pegged to be higher, but
lawmakers steered the corporate share of the kicker into a new rainy day
fund.

The release of kicker checks for the first time since 2001 will likely
spur a renewal of an argument between those who favor small government
and those who prefer big government.

To those in favor of small government, the rebates represent a check on
bureaucracy. Advocates for public programs, meanwhile, say the state
should use the surplus to help the needy or save it as a hedge against
economic downturns.

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