🚀 go-pugleaf

I received this by e-mail with a request to post:

 
24  23  22  21  20  19  |  18  17  16  15  14  13
 X       O           O  |       O               X
 X       O           O  |       O               X
                     O  |                       X
                     O  |                       X
                        |                       X
                        |                             X to play 6-4
                     X  |                       O
                     X  |                       O
                     X  |       X               O
 O                   X  |       X               O
 O                   X  |       X               O
 1   2   3   4   5   6      7   8   9  10  11  12
 
I agree with you. Making 2 is a bad move. The options are 24-18 13-9
and 24-14. Now everyone else (so far) has gone for 24-14 on the grounds
that a man on 14 is only exposed to a single shot, whereas on 18 it's a
double shot. But:
i) with 24-18, 13-9 there are far more possibilities for X next roll if
   missed. 24-14 achieves very little, maybe nothing if the man on 14
   can't be safetied next time. Even then the position is very inflexible.
ii) Being hit on 18 leaves far more return shots (6-1, 6-2, 6-4, 6-5,
    5-2, 4-3) than on 14 (6-5).
iii) O is also unlikely to choose to hit you on 18 with most 1's.