🚀 go-pugleaf

From: karr@cs.cornell.edu (David Karr)
>In article <C1GuHw.zuF@austin.ibm.com> bmoore@sunfish.austin.ibm.com (Bryan Moore) writes:
>>[...]
>>Back to the dice... Roll two dice 100 times. Get 100 pieces of paper and
>>write the results of the first die on one side and write the results
>>of the second die on the other side of the piece of paper. Put all the
>>pieces of paper in a hat. Now pick a piece of paper out of the hat.
>>You see a six on the piece of paper, what is the probability that the
>>other side has a six? IT IS 1/11!!!!!!! 

>No, it's 1/6.  Have you tried it?  Get someone who really understands
>probability to explain it to you.  Or you can simulate it easily on a
>computer, but remember, a paper with two 6's can be selected in two
>different ways but a paper with only one 6 can be selected in only one
>way (if the first side you look at is the other side you have to
>discard the event).

>-- David Karr (karr@cs.cornell.edu)

Ooops...you are right about the dice.
And after pondering this whole problem for a 
while I've come to the conclusion that the answer to the original
problem can be either 1/3 or 1/2 depending on how you word and
interpret the question. 

I like the way Martin Gardner worded the problem in one of his books.

There are two owls in a cage. One of them is male. What is the 
probability they are both male? Now, the way this is worded, I don't
see how you can argue for an answer of 1/2 over 1/3. 

Oh, and by the way David, do you *really* understand probability? :-)

-Bryan
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