🚀 go-pugleaf

In article <1993Jan26.095218.17387@cbfsb.cb.att.com>,
cooper@cbnewsg.cb.att.com (Ralph 'Hairy' Moonen) wrote:
>Try this analogy, and you'll see
> what's wrong with your answer.
> 
> You are throwing 2 consecutive dice. The first one turns up a six. What is
> the chance of the second also being a six. It's easy to see that because dice
> have no memory, the chance is also 1/6. Now, following your line of reasoning,
> there are 36 different ways to throw the dice. Because 1 six already has
> been thrown this leaves 11 combinations, one of which is a double six.
> So, according to you, you only have 1/11 chance of throwing a second six.
> Clearly this is dead wrong.

Yes, your analogy is dead wrong.  The analogy for the original problem is:

You are throwing two dice, and at least one of them turns up a six.  What
are the chances that you rolled a total of twelve?  If you believe that the
answer is 1/6 and not 1/11, please come over and bet me anytime. :-)
NEVIN ":-)" LIBER, RISC Meanie, Mac System Software
 email:     nevin@apple.com        paper:  Apple Computer, Inc.
 voice:     (408) 974-MIX1                 20525 Mariani Avenue, MS: 81-GC
 AppleLink: BADENOV                        Cupertino, CA 95014