hoosier-cash-lotto-inspired puzzle.

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2 total messages Started by RVESTERM Sun, 24 Jan 1993 21:59

#2483

Author: RVESTERM
Date: Sun, 24 Jan 1993 21:59

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you see the results of a lottery drawing: n numbers, i1, i2, ..., in.
what is the chance that the highest number possible in the lottery is
k? you can assume that the lowest possible number is one, that the
possible numbers are all integers, and that if j is possible and j is
not equal to one, then j-1 is possible. also, what is the chance that
there is no k such that k is the highest number possible?

bob vesterman.

Re: hoosier-cash-lotto-inspired puzzle.

#2484

Author: David Karr
Date: Mon, 25 Jan 1993 14:42

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In article <93024.165953RVESTERM@vma.cc.nd.edu> <RVESTERM@vma.cc.nd.edu> writes:
>you see the results of a lottery drawing: n numbers, i1, i2, ..., in.
>what is the chance that the highest number possible in the lottery is
>k?

This seems more of a statistics question than a probability question.
You have a probability distribution with one parameter (k) and you
want to estimate the value of k from a set of actual data, using some
formula.  But you need to make some kind of assumption about the
distribution of k itself in order to ask your question.  Suppose your
formula gives k=29.  I would guess that k=30 is much more likely to be
the parameter for a real-life lottery in that case.

> also, what is the chance that
>there is no k such that k is the highest number possible?

I.e. every positive integer has a non-zero probability of being selected
by the first ball?  Then surely the distribution of this variable is not
uniform, unlike every lottery I know of.

>bob vesterman.

-- David Karr (karr@cs.cornell.edu)

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