🚀 go-pugleaf

kujebak <kujebak@eudoramail.com> writes:

> On Dec 4, 1:52 pm, nob...@nospam.pacbell.net (Bill Z.) wrote:
>>
>> It may surpise you, but researchers are in fact interested in
>> numbers such as the probability of transmission from per sex
>> act by an infected individual: those are the numbers that are
>> useful for epidemiological models where the probability of
>> a sex partner being infected changes over time or changes based
>> on demographics.
>
> I'm not implying it is impossible to come up with statistical
> estimation of HIV+ to HIV- per sex act transmission frequency
> among male homosexuals, I'm just saying the 0.0082 figure
> you are inferring from your quoted study is grossly inconsistent
> with other evidence I have come across in the last 15-20 years,
> which was consistently in the 0.1 to 0.3 range, as in this IAVI
> 2004 data:

And I'm saying you are full of it.

>
> http://tinyurl.com/66w68t
>
>>
>> > But if the frequency of HIV infections per sex act is calculated
>> > from a sample of the entire gay male population, then the numbers
>> > will be somewhat irrelevant, wouldn't you say. Did the study really
>> > assume that every sexual contact considered involved at least one
>> > HIV positive individual? Show me where it is stated!
>>
>> Read it.  That's what they reported. 


> This is the paragraph you are quoting:
>
> "One study calculated the per-sex-act probability of HIV
> transmission in a cohort of men who have sex with men
> (MSM) and determined that for unprotected receptive anal
> intercourse, the probability was 0.82% per act, for unprotected
> insertive anal intercourse 0.06%, and for unprotected receptive
> oral intercourse with ejaculation 0.04%. This remains the only
> study available that provides a probability for oral transmission,
> and further study is required to corroborate these estimates."
>
> From what part of this text can you infer what you are claiming
> above? Is there more of this study somewhere else on the web?

Hey moron, I gave you a link to the study with all the details.
It is obviously the per-sex act rate when one of the two is
infected.  That's what the probability of transmission per sex
act means.  The link was
<http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/publicat/epiu-aepi/epi_update_may_04/13-eng.php>
(curiously, instead of reproducing it you snipped part of it so that people
wouldn't be able to follow it when you misquoted my text).

It starts with the statement, "The risk of HIV transmission through
unprotected anal and vaginal intercourse is well known. Estimates of
the probability of per-sex-act (receptive penile-anal intercourse with
ejaculation) HIV transmission among homosexual men in the USA range
from 0.005 to 0.03 during the asymptomatic phase of infection1 to as
high as 0.1-0.3 during primary HIV infection.2"

Also "Analyses of data from North American and European studies of
long-term heterosexual couples estimate the per-sex-act probability of
HIV transmission through penile-vaginal intercourse to be
approximately 0.001.3"

Also "One study calculated the per-sex-act probability of HIV
transmission in a cohort of men who have sex with men (MSM) and
determined that for unprotected receptive anal intercourse, the
probability was 0.82% per act, for unprotected insertive anal
intercourse 0.06%, and for unprotected receptive oral intercourse with
ejaculation 0.04%.4 This remains the only study available that
provides a probability for oral transmission, and further study is
required to corroborate these estimates."

Note that "1" after "infection", "2" after "infection", "3" after
"0.001.", and  the "4" after "0.04%." are footnotes.

The citations those footnotes provide are:

  1  DeGruttola V, Seage GR III, Mayer KH, Horsburgh CR.
     Infectiousness of HIV between male homosexual partners. J Clin 
     Epidemiol 1989;42(9):849-56.

  2 Jacquez JA, Koopman JS, Simon CP, Longini IM Jr .
    Role of the primary infection in epidemics of HIV infection in 
    gay cohorts. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 1994;7(11):1169-84.

  3 Mastro TD, de Vincenzi I. Probabilities of sexual HIV-1 transmission. 
    AIDS 1996;10(Suppl A):S75-S82.

  4 Vittinghoff E, Douglas J, Judson F et al.
    Per-contact risk of human immuno-deficiency virus transmission 
    between male sexual partners. Am J Epidemiol 1999;150(3):306-11.

Now, look at the titles of those citations.  When someone says
"Per-contact risk of human immuno-deficiency virus transmission" it is
obviously taking about the per sex act risk of transmitting the virus
when the virus is present.

If you can't read well enough to understand that, there is really no
point in talking to you.

> I know what your point is, I'm just not going to let you get away
> with a purposerful misinterpretation like this. 

It isn't a misinterpreation, and your lies won't change that. See above

> You accused me
> of minimizing the danger of heterosexual transmission of HIV.
> Is it not worse to allege the probability of contracting HIV from
> a positive sex partner through anal intercourse is only 0.8%,
> when it actually is somewhere between 10 and 30%?

You did minimize the risk for heterosexual transmission when you
said that transmission was "entirely" due to a "specific sex act".

<rest ignored - this guy is an idiot.>