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Questions Over Reported Progress in Zimbabwe Talks

Institute for War & Peace Reporting

Observers can see none of the improvements claimed from the 
negotiations 
on resolving the long-running political stand-off.

By Joseph Sithole in Harare (AR No. 151, 22-Jan-08)

South African president Thabo Mbeki has once again reported progress in 
the talks he is mediating between Zimbabwe�s ruling ZANU-PF party and 
the opposition in an attempt to end the country�s eight-year political 
and economic crisis.

However, analysts say that any headway made in the negotiations 
brokered 
by the Southern African Development Community, SADC, is as 
imperceptible 
and inaudible as the so-called �quiet diplomacy� Mbeki has used in 
dealing with President Robert Mugabe.

On January 17, Mbeki met Mugabe for four hours at State House, and then
talked separately with both leaders of the divided opposition Movement 
for Democratic Change, MDC, at the South African embassy in Harare.

The South African leader told journalists after these private meetings 
that he was satisfied with the commitment of all political leaders to 
resolving the long-running crisis.

�You cannot doubt the level of commitment of the Zimbabwe leadership to
ensuring that the country�s problems are solved,� said Mbeki, standing 
next to Mugabe, who will be 84 next month.

�This [negotiating process] is work in progress and I must say that 
there has been very good progress. There is definitely a lot of light.�

Both sides in the negotiations have refused to comment on the content 
and outcome of their meetings with Mbeki, insisting on the blanket of 
secrecy they swore to at the start of the SADC-initiated negotiations 
in 
April last year.

Earlier in the week, Mbeki told visiting Irish prime minister Bertie 
Ahern that while a breakthrough was close in the talks, there remained 
certain �sticking points�.

During the negotiations talks, the opposition have called for a new
constitution, reform of the country�s electoral laws and the right to 
vote for all Zimbabwean expatriates, as well as an end to political 
violence and repression before the elections scheduled for March.

After Mugabe categorically rejected introducing a new constitution 
before the elections, the MDC asked instead for a transitional document 
designed to ensure free and fair elections.

However, the opposition recently complained that Mugabe�s ZANU-PF party 
had backtracked on agreements to come up with such a transitional 
constitution and to postpone the elections to allow reforms to 
electoral 
and security laws to take place in advance.

An analyst in Harare said that it was hard to see what progress Mbeki 
could be referring to.

�Perhaps they know something we don�t know,� said the analyst, who also
noted the continuing reports of violence around the country.

�Since they began, the talks have been cloaked in secrecy except for 
leaks and occasional complaints by the opposition about ZANU-PF�s 
failure to meet fully its commitments. The progress is as imperceptible 
as the effects of Mbeki�s �quiet diplomacy� on Mugabe. There is nothing 
on the ground.�

The MDC also came in for criticism.

Sources close to this week�s talks between Mbeki and the MDC leaders 
say 
the opposition �capitulated� without a whimper when they were informed 
that Mugabe had dismissed their calls for a new constitution and for a 
delay in holding the elections until June.

Few of the MDC�s other demands have been met by the ruling party. 
ZANU-PF has so far agreed on only cosmetic amendments to repressive 
laws 
such as the Public Order and Security Act, which empowers police to 
unilaterally ban opposition rallies if they have a reason to believe 
these might result in violence.

Less than two months before the polls, there is still no sign that
government plans to relax its grip on the state media and allow the
opposition to campaign freely.

 From the look of things, said one observer, the MDC had backed down 
from its previous militant approach.

�Either they have capitulated or they believe that indeed ZANU-PF can�t 
beat them in free and fair elections,� he said.

According to this analyst, who did not want to be named, the MDC have 
drawn encouragement from recent events in Kenya, where violence erupted 
after the opposition accused the incumbent president Mwai Kibaki of 
stealing the election.

Nelson Chamisa, spokesman for the MDC faction led by Morgan Tsvangirai,
recently told a rally in the poor suburb of Dzivaresekwa that there 
would be a bloodbath worse than that in Kenya if there is a feeling 
after the March elections that the vote was rigged.

The analyst concluded that the MDC may believe the threat of angry 
protests will be enough to deter the authorities from vote-rigging in 
the spring elections.

�They believe ZANU-PF will be loathe to go that route when events in 
Kenya are still fresh and Mugabe has not got over the tag of 
illegitimacy which he has worn since his controversial re-election in 
2000.�

Meanwhile, the MDC announced demonstrations for January 23 to push for 
a 
new constitution and also to test ZANU-PF�s commitment to non-violence.

The opposition movement, which insists it remains committed to the SADC
talks, has planned a total of 300 rallies to take place this month, 
starting with three in the capital Harare at the weekend.

�The march of a million men and women that we intend to hold on January 
23, 2008 is a dipstick in an oil tank to gauge the seriousness I have 
alluded to earlier on,� said Tendai Biti, who is secretary-general of 
the Tsvangirai faction and is representing it at the Mbeki-led 
negotiations.

�I have to point out that this intended march is in no way prejudicial 
to the SADC mediation efforts,� he said. �I have to place it on record 
that the MDC remains committed to the SADC talks and we remain hopeful 
that something will come out of that process.�

�This is part of Zimbabwe�s democratisation process,� said Biti.

�Now that we have been in the boardroom [with the ruling party] for 
this
long, we want to take the struggle outside the boardroom and into the
streets, where we will gauge whether there was any seriousness and
commitment to the SADC dialogue on the part of ZANU-PF.�

Joseph Sithole is the pseudonym of a journalist in Zimbabwe.