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                       The New (economic) World Order
                             December 15, 1992

     There  are  about 5.5 billion people in the world.  There  are  about  250 
million  people in this country.  Doing a bit of rounding off here, we can  say 
that  there are about 20 of "them" for every one of "us".  These  figures  were 
about the same at the end of World War II.  Further, let us say that we had one 
idea  for every idea created in the rest of the world.  This resulted  in  this 
country having the prosperity, goods, services, etc, equal to what all the rest 
of the world had.  It is generally believed that at that time we had about  50% 
of  the worlds wealth.  And wealth starts from ideas.  But that was  nearly  50 
years ago.
     In  todays  world about half that population of 5+ billion people  has  an 
education  equivalent  to that of our population.  It is  from  these  educated 
people  that  the world gets its ideas--and subsequent wealth.  So we  can  say 
today that for every idea produced here, there are 10 ideas produced  elsewhere 
in  the  world.   Even if we say that the average American has  twice  as  many 
ideas,  we are still left with 1 idea for every 5 produced elsewhere.   We  can 
also  see that the resulting prosperity in the rest of the world has  increased 
accordingly and relatively in proportion.  About half the world has nearly  the 
same  level of prosperity as here.  Furthermore, there are another 2.5  billion 
people  who are not exactly sitting still.  They are educating  themselves  and 
also moving up economically.
     So can we, the United States, regain our old position, an oft heard  prom-
ise  in the recent, and past, political campaigns?  Can we raise up the  educa-
tional  level of our people to produce that old ratio of new  ideas?   Probably 
not without a miracle.  Probably not unless every person in the country gets  a 
PhD.  And everyone is just not capable of that.  The country is probably  maxed 
out--except  for  gradual improvements and new ideas that make small  leaps  in 
creativity and productivity.  Meanwhile, the rest of the world will be hard  on 
our heels to make the same creative and productive leaps.  But eventually  most 
of the people in the world will reach certain minimum standards of food, cloth-
ing,  shelter,  and education, that will allow them to take  up  all  available 
improvements  in education, knowledge, and capabilities.  Before  long  automo-
biles  and airplanes will be produced on every continent  (except  Antarctica), 
and nearly every country.
     But the political promise is that "our party will do something to  restore 
America  to its once great past".  Nah.  I doubt it.  Education  and  spreading 
democratization,  the fluidity of information, capital, labor, and raw  materi-
als,  is  slowly robbing us of our once formidable advantages.   The  world  is 
witnessing  the  first generation of universal teenagers  (also  called  global 
teens by others) who know the same music, art, dance, language, vacation spots, 
literature, and I-want-my-MTV!  They sweep and flow around the world--just like 
information,  capital, labor, and raw materials.  It is becoming more and  more 
possible  to manufacture market and move anything anywhere anytime.  But  every 
combination of these capabilities begins with an idea.  And these ideas can now 
come  from  anyone anywhere anytime and go everywhere anytime.  In  the  future 
economic  disadvantages,  mistakes, misses, will come about  because  you  were 
asleep  in the wrong time zone!  (How about an idea alarm clock that  goes  off 
the  moment something that matches your interests and abilities hits the  world 
network?   Even  better: how about some software that sieves the  universe  for 
this information, while you sleep, prepares background, double checks, investi-
gates  for fraud and deception, and wakes you no sooner than absolutely  neces-
sary?  Actually, software of that sort already exists.)
     Some  of the science fiction novels of my youth described  worlds  without 
work.   Rather, a world where you didn't need to work because robots and  auto-
mated  factories did everything, but where you could work.  There  were  always 
some  people who couldn't help working.  It was in them too deeply  to  resist.  
So  everyone else was busy with whatever intrigues made up the story  line  and 
plot,  or big theme.  It was never really explained just how this world  of  no 
work came about (or maybe I missed the novel(s) that explained it).  But  some-
how  we got from today, where everyone has to work, to then, when nobody  would 
have to work.  Well, that's not exactly true.  Not everyone works today.  There 
are the unemployed.  Those on welfare.  The disabled.  Those who live on  trust 
funds, interest, the lottery, etc.
     What seems to be different about the current state of economic affairs  is 
that  many very bright, well educated, talented, experienced people are  having 
great difficulty finding new jobs.  Or the new jobs they find don't pay  nearly 
the  same  as  the last one, or it is a job that just does  not  require  their 
education  or experience.  That future world of robots and automated  factories 
is bearing down on us, the whole world, in the form of increased  productivity, 
efficiency,  and "down-sizing".  Fewer people doing more "work".  Fewer  people 
making  more things.  Agriculture is a good example of this phenomenon.   About 
2% of the people produce enough food for the country--plus a large surplus that 
is  given away in this country and around the world.  About 90% of  the  people 
once  worked  to  produce food.  The same thing is happening  to  every  widely 
consumed  product.   Fewer people are required to produce all  of  whatever  is 
needed.   If you put all those people to work they will start producing a  sur-
plus.  The agricultural work force has diminished because it is just too absurd 
to produce food and then leave it to rot.  One sees examples of this rotting of 
food  when farmers in various countries protest the way changing world  markets 
are  impinging on their economic situation.  They block roads into a city.   Or 
they dump potatoes, or milk, or herd sheep into the center of town.  They don't 
want  to  change,  but the global market that brings them MTV,  and  500  other 
channels  from  around the world, is producing potatoes, milk, and  sheep  more 
cheaply  and efficiently than they are.  What about cars?  What about when  you 
reach  the  point of having manufactured a car for every human on  the  planet?  
How about teaching dogs and cats to drive?  Nah.  Dogs are too stupid, and cats 
would never obey the rules.
     One of my favorite eco-cartoons starts out with a large bulldozer  sitting 
on the surface of the Earth.  The bulldozer starts moving things around, out of 
sight and mind.  It represents development and progress.  By the end panel  the 
bulldozer  is  the  only  thing you see.  The Earth  has  been  completely  de-
veloped--and  consumed.  In order for everyone to be employed we will  have  to 
produce  and  consume at an ever faster pace--primarily because  production  is 
becoming constantly more efficient.  About two decades ago (I say that,  rather 
than  20 years ago, because it is easier to stomach two than 20) a  friend  and 
colleague  started a newsletter/publication titled "The Effluent  Society".   A 
play  on the words "The Affluent Society".  The latter was also  becoming  more 
and more the former.  While increasing affluence means more comfort and  better 
health,  the dark side, the down side of that affluence is effluent.   Garbage, 
waste, pollution, the consequences of making anything.  It takes energy to make 
and move everything.  The expending of energy means electromagnetic and thermal 
radiation loosed on the environment and the living things in it.  To make a car 
with  a  coat  of paint that won't chip, flake, rust, dull  from  sunlight,  or 
disintegrate from road salt--you must use considerable energy and some powerful 
chemicals.   Neither of which all end up on the car.  You get a nice car.   You 
get some nasty things in your environment.
     Some might say that the solution to the countries unemployment problem  is 
exactly  in doing something about cleaning up the environment, making new  ways 
of  making  products  that use less energy and material, and  that  have  fewer 
harmful byproducts.  They might say we need a new generation of scientists  and 
engineers  to do these things.  That the future of the country, and the  world, 
is in this direction.  Nothing wrong with that.
     Let me say, before you become convinced that the writer of this  what-you-
are reading is a pessimist, that there is another little thought about, and not 
realized  direction that might be utilized to return this country to  a  really 
dominant position in the world economy.  This is possible because of  something 
very unique about America.  But first, let me digress to what it is that  makes 
most countries economic powerhouses in the world.  Exports.  And what, you ask, 
is  Americas  number one export?  Airplanes, of course.   But  Europe,  Brazil, 
Japan,  Russia, and others are all getting into that great game.  Doesn't  look 
too  good there.  How about our second largest export?  Don't know what it  is?  
How  about... art and culture!  How about films, video, TV, music, MTV,  books, 
magazines,  etc.  Close on the heels of airplanes.  And our  competitors?   Ask 
yourself  about  the  last time you heard a really great  Japanese  song  being 
played on the radio.  See any wonderful Russian films lately?  No way!  At this 
point in history, America really has no competitors in the arts & culture  that 
is more and more becoming a part of the every day life of people everywhere  in 
the world.  Step into a taxi in Ankara, Turkey.  The driver is wearing a  Walk-
man.  What kind of music is playing?  American pop, jazz, rock & roll,  whatev-
er--but  definitely American.  A bus driver in Indonesia, also wearing a  Walk-
man.  What music is playing?  The answer is left as an exercise for the reader.  
Art products will become even more valuable for this country as the rest of the 
world recognizes intellectual property rights and ends illegal copies.   Ameri-
can  fashion is often copied.  One reads, regularly, stories in the  newspapers 
of  cheap fashion "knockoffs" imported into a country that are stopped  because 
they  are  forgeries and illegal copies.  In Beirut, Lebanon, during  the  many 
years  of civil wars, you could count on a bit more peace and quiet  during  at 
least one hour a week.  It was calmer once a week, for an hour, for some  years 
because of an American art product.  Once a week the latest episode of "Dallas" 
would  be shown on national TV.  Everyone went home to watch.  It was  quintes-
sentially American.  But it was also universal and about something that  every-
one  could  understand.  Power.  Getting it and keeping it.   And  money.   And 
women.  The archetypes shown were people easily understood in a society engaged 
in  a  battle over the very same things.  But not all American  art/culture  is 
understood around the world in the same way we see things.  It may have quite a 
different  appeal.  An American reporter describes an incident during the  Gulf 
War.   He  was in an Arab city, entered a room, and noticed some  Arab  friends 
watching  Tom  and Jerry cartoons.  As usual, Tom and Jerry were engaged  in  a 
frantic  chase.   They were fascinated and completely hypnotized by  what  they 
saw.   As soon as it ended one of the Arabs turned to his reporter  friend  and 
asked, who are you for, Tom or Jerry?
     American  art & culture is appreciated and consumed world-wide.  And  this 
presents  a very interesting possibility for continued economic growth.   While 
computer  chips, steel, and automobile industries in this country have  made  a 
surprising  comeback  during the last decade, their are still fierce,  and  in-
creasing  numbers of competitors for these commodities.   Airplanes,  primarily 
from Boeing, are currently the countries number one export.  Right behind it we 
find  art,  in the forms of film, TV, music, books, etc.   America  has  strong 
competitors  for airplanes and most commodity goods.  The country  has,  effec-
tively, no competitors for art.  Huh?  Heard any good Japanese pop music  late-
ly?   Watched any interesting European TV in the last few years?   This  writer 
believes that American art dominates the world for a very simple reason.  It is 
similar  to  the reason why so many people want to come to  this  country  from 
every  corner  of the world.  We live in a less  authoritarian  and  conformist 
society.  While this can be a dangerous place to live, it is seldom because  of 
government  or social convention.  For those who would respond that we do  live 
in  an authoritarian society, we can paraphrase Albert Einstein, and  say  that 
everything  is relative.  Imagine the surprise of American female soldiers  who 
went to Saudi Arabia for the Gulf War, and had Saudi religious police  whacking 
them  on their exposed calves and shins with special whips made just  for  that 
purpose!  Or that Saudi women weren't allowed to drive.
     Nearly every country encourages education (political movements in Cambodia 
and Peru being the two main exceptions) in mathematics and science.  Art educa-
tion  is  feared and discouraged in many place.  To be an artist is  to  be  an 
explorer  of  human experience and the human condition.  Vaclav Havel,  once  a 
tenant of his state's prisons, and later his countries leader, is an example of 
how  dangerous  art can be for some governments.  The best art  needs  complete 
freedom  to explore and consider every possibility.  Everything has to be  open 
to consideration.  Every feeling has to be touchable and open to exposure.   Or 
consider the case of Salmon Rushdie, and his book Satanic Verses, and the  gov-
ernment  of Iran has offered several millions dollars to the person  who  kills 
him.   We  won't be hearing a lot of good pop music from Iran!   The  citizenry 
there  is mostly walking on tip-toes to avoid doing anything that  doesn't  fit 
in.  An important journalist in Egypt was recently murdered for his openness to 
new ideas.  And so it is, mainly to a lesser degree, in much of the world.   In 
no  other country does the individual or collaborative effort in the arts  have 
such  a  free reign as here.  This means that America will continue to  be  the 
source of much of the world's consumable art.
     For  who  knows how long one has heard the refrain of  arts  teachers  and 
advocates that we must fund arts education better.  And now there is, it  seems 
to this writer, clear economic justification for doing so.  Democratic  systems 
of government are becoming more and more common in the world.  But it will be a 
considerably longer time before those governments result in really free people, 
and  people free to make art.  Meanwhile, America has a clear  and  unambiguous 
hold on the market and the attention of the world's people.
     In  this area America still has almost no competition.  At the same  time, 
as material conditions in the world improve, the market for these products will 
continue  to grow.  It seems obvious to this writer that America will miss  the 
boat if this avenue is not given serious consideration.  Everyone should  study 
math and science.  The country needs mathematicians and scientists.  The mathe-
matical algorithms build into electronic sound and audio products, that convert 
magnetic spots on tape and disk to sound and light, were invented by...  That's 
right,  American mathematicians.  The first transistors and VCRs were  invented 
by...   You guessed right again.  At the same time the country can't afford  to 
waste  the chance to take advantage of a growing market in art.   And  artistic 
values,  and  aesthetic, should continue to be integrated into the  design  and 
final versions of all products.  A product pleasing to the eye and easy to work 
with is a clear direction in commerce.
     Finally,  let me say that everyone, mathematician and scientist  included, 
would be well served to do something in the arts.  There's writing and painting 
and the theater.  Everyone should learn to play a musical instrument, for exam-
ple, the saxophone.

Comments to: Richard Gardner
             Box 1067 Harvard Sq Stn
             Cambridge MA 02238

             rgardner@charon.mit.edu (Internet)