Article View: sci.math.stat
Article #541Re: Let's Make a Deal!
From: Charles Packer
Date: Mon, 28 Sep 1992 10:38
Date: Mon, 28 Sep 1992 10:38
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1323 bytes
Wait a minute, I thought I understood this a few months ago when it was discussed here. But now I write down what I understand to be the sample space and it says: don't bother to switch, it's a fair game: Assume for simplification that the prize is always behind door A. Probabiliy of each outcome is listed: I choose A, host chooses B, I stay with A 1/12 win I choose A, host chooses B, I switch to C 1/12 I choose A, host chooses C, I stay with A 1/12 win I choose A, host chooses C, I switch to B 1/12 I choose B, host chooses C, I stay with B 1/6 I choose B, host chooses C, I switch to A 1/6 win I choose C, host chooses B, I stay with C 1/6 I choose C, host chooses B, I switch to A 1.6 win Add the "win" probabilities together, and they come out to .5. I must have forgotten something...
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Newsgroups: sci.math.stat Path: arc1-ca.pugleaf.net!sparky!uunet!sun-barr!ames!nsisrv!amarna.gsfc.nasa.gov!packer From: packer@amarna.gsfc.nasa.gov (Charles Packer) Subject: Re: Let's Make a Deal! Message-ID: <28SEP199206381627@amarna.gsfc.nasa.gov> News-Software: VAX/VMS VNEWS 1.4-b1 Sender: usenet@nsisrv.gsfc.nasa.gov (Usenet) Nntp-Posting-Host: amarna.gsfc.nasa.gov Organization: Dept. of Independence References: <1992Sep24.235808.16425@leland.Stanford.EDU> Date: Mon, 28 Sep 1992 10:38:00 GMT Lines: 18