🚀 go-pugleaf

Duncan Murdoch writes
> In article <1992Sep24.144902.15458@galileo.cc.rochester.edu>  
em@finch.cvs.rochester.edu (Ethan Montag) writes:
> >Hall also talked
> >about how he could manipulate peoples' choices by what he says and the way
> >he presents the choices in ways that don't change the probabilities.
> 
> But what he says *does* affect how one should judge the probabilities.  
> Monty is making a choice; the probabilities depend on how he makes it.  If 
> he is free to do whatever he wants (e.g. not open any door, open the door 
> with the big prize behind it, cancel the game), then you've got 
> insufficient information to judge whether to switch.  At the other extreme,
> if he's constrained to always choose a bogus door, and to flip a coin to 
> pick which one in case there are two available, then you've got a clear 
> probabilistic basis for a decision to switch.
> 
> What he says in the pitch leading up to your choice is going to affect your 
> mental model of Monty and how he is making his decision.  Of course
> he can manipulate peoples' choices.
> 
> 
> Duncan Murdoch
> dmurdoch@mast.queensu.ca

But it doesn't matter what he >always< does.  It only matters what he >did< do.   
He >did< pick a bogus door to reveal to you.  Therefore the odds are in favor of  
switching.

Period.