🚀 go-pugleaf

Recap of Kilauea eruption status over the last month or so...

The east rift eruption continues unabated.  Over the last month or so
the output of lava may be increasing somewhat (though opinions differ,
and it's hard to get good measurements) more than the 5 or so cubic
meters per second that Kilauea has been producing almost continuously
for the last 3-5 years.

[5 cubic meters per second may not sound like all that much lava, but
it adds up: if you think in terms of equivalent deliveries of "ready-mix"
concrete trucks, that's about 70,000 truck deliveries a day.]

Very few surface breakouts occur along the lava tube system between
the vent and the ocean, although there are still a number of "skylights"
where flowing lava is visible through holes in the covering crust.
Lava continues to enter the sea at 3-4 points straddling Kupapau
Point.  Several "black sand" (basalt) beaches continue to develop in
this area.

Tiltmeter measurements indicate the summit of Kiluea is continuing
to inflate, a general trend since June.

Harmonic tremor [indicating deep lava movement towards the surface]
continues in the east rift zone near Pu'u O'o and the eruptive vent.
Minor changes in tremor amplitude continue occur at intervals varying
from a few minutes to many hours.  The latest earthquakes above
magnitude 4 near the east rift zone were a 4.8 magnitude event at
0526HST on 20 March and a 4.2 magnitude event at 0547 HST on 30 March,
both a few kilometers south of the eruptive vent.

There has been a continuing series of moderate earthquakes in the area
west of the island of Hawaii and south of Maui, typically ranging from
3.0 to 4.3 in magnitude.  Earthquake activity in that area seems to be
gradually decreasing, the last significant events were 5.0 at 1430HSt
on 24 March, and a 5.3 event at 1733HSt on 27 March.

Earthquakes between magnitude 3 and 4 are still common in both areas,
and the weekly Geological Survey reports continue to contain plots of
them.

Tourists keep to flock to the shoreline, and National Park
Service rangers have reported having some difficulties with too
many people wandering closer than they should---not being aware
of the dangers of steam explosions---to where lava is flowing
into the sea.  [Note that if you are thinking about coming and
seeing this for yourself, because of the heat and fume, you shouldn't
if you have any heart or lung problem.]  Whether or not related


Side note about real estate values...

The eruption itself, and much of the land the lava has flowed over is
within the Hawaii Volcanos National Park.  However, some of the flow
has covered private land, mostly in the Royal Gardens subdivision.  The
land was subdivided about 8 years ago, but has never been "improved"
(no sidewalks, waterlines, etc...this is in a rural area).

About six years ago, a typical one-acre lot was selling for about
$12,000 (more if it had a good view of the shoreline).  Although all
the 1,505 lots were sold off by the developer, less than 100 houses had
been built when the eruption started about five years ago.

Now, lava covers many of the lots and 28 of the subdivision's houses,
access to other houses have been cut off by the lava flows, access
to others is limited to a temporary road through the Volcanoes National
Park that will be closed indefinitely in May.  Only about 15 people
continue to live in about 10 houses in the subdivision now.

A few lots are actually on the market now with asking prices around
$2,500, but understandably none have been sold in over two years.  In
the words of a real estate broker, "Only an eccentric would want one."
In contrast, 150 lots were in 1987 sold elsewhere in the Puna area (which has
been something of a depressed area since the major employer, Puna Sugar
Company, closed in the early 1980s) outside of the area affected by the
eruption, ranging in price from $1,800 to $132,000.

Besides abandoning their land, between 20-30% of the Royal Gardens lot
owners aren't bothering to pay their property taxes anymore, even
though the Hawaii County tax people have dropped the assessed values of
most of the lots to $2,000 (many owners continuing to pay property
taxes are contesting even this very low assessment).  Lots actually
covered with lava get the statutory minimum assessment of $7 per acre.
[The property tax probably runs about $18 per $1000 of assessed value
annually.]
Bob Cunningham
bob@loihi.hig.hawaii.edu