🚀 go-pugleaf

To: >INTERNET:fusion@zorch.sf-bay.org

Some correspondents have accused me of contradicting myself for stating, on
one hand:

     "you must never, ever, believe or disbelieve any results based upon the
     reputation of the scientists involved;"

     While, on the other hand, saying the claims of NTT, IMRA, the NHEP, have
     great credence because they come from large, established corporations,
     and that statements from MITI like "we are certain the heat is real"
     should be taken seriously because MITI is the most successful government
     technology development agency in history.

This may appear to be a contradiction, but it is not, because I am looking at
the situation from a business point of view, and I am making two completely
different kinds of statements, about different kinds of scientific claims:

1. A small, revolutionary science breakthrough claim.

A claim that a primitive basement experiment has yielded a barely measurable
level of excess heat that continued for such a long time that it added up to
far more energy than any possible chemical reaction can yield. This is
incredible. It should never be believed -- or dismissed -- until years have
passed, and it has been widely replicated. Anybody could have performed the
original P&F type experiments; a graduate student or high school chemistry
teacher would have had access to the tools and materials needed, just as any
bicycle mechanic could have built a primitive airplane in 1903.

2. Big, industrial strength breakthrough claims.

A claim that a lab has performed 200 experiments costing $3 million. Or, a
claim that a group of scientists has used $560,000 worth of sophisticated
equipment for 4 years to make a CF reactor; and their company is so certain
they are right, it is about to market the equipment in an OEM deal. This kind
of thing is believable coming from a large, established corporation. If the
Atlanta Screen & Trapdoor Fusion Power Company announced a $560,000 OEM deal
for a CF reactor, you would be wise to assume it was a scam. If the world's
largest telephone company announces that deal, you better believe they mean
it. You would a fool to bet they are mistaken. NTT has a "track record" of
being right, and NTT never, ever, takes unnecessary, foolhardy chances, and
never jumps to conclusions.

Going back to my 1903 example, anyone could have built a 1903 Kitty Hawk
Flyer. A 1918 model Sopwith Camel was enormously larger, more powerful, more
sophisticated, and could not possibly have been built by a pair of bicycle
mechanics in their spare time.

- Jed


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