🚀 go-pugleaf

In article <C0o7Ay.HEB@cs.uiuc.edu> watanabe@cs.uiuc.edu (Larry Watanabe) writes:
>rburns@key.COM (Randy Burns) writes:
>
>>The more I read the news in sci.physics.fusion, the more that I tend
>>to think that _somebody_(my own favorite horses in this race are some
>>of the small companies working on hot fusion) will come up with a 
>>dramatically improved energy source sometime in the next 30 years.
>
>>What investment strategies can folks suggest that would benefit 
>>from events that dramatically decrease the costs of energy. 
...........
>>I'd expect oil and coal prices to both drop rather dramatically  after
>>some breakthrough in energy technology unless the non-energy uses of oil
>>(i.e. making plastics and fabrics) expanded dramatically in response to
>>cheaper energy prices.



This just doesn't hold water.  In many of the oil producing areas of
the world - especially, the US and the North Sea, the cost of
production is high enough that a precipitous drop in consumption would
just take these produccers off line.  The market would probably
stabilize at about $15 per barrel.



>For example, you might invest in Japanese companies,
>since Japan must import a lot of oil from the Middle East.
>If Japan could have its own independent energy, that would
>make it much less vulnerable, increasing the economic
>viability and security of the country.




Japan seems to be making major investments in a strategy that would
make their energy Plutonium based.  Short term, this could give them
great advantages because there's a lot of excess PU, and it's
comparatively cheap.  But long-term, when cheap alternative energy
becomes available, the Japanese will suffer the costs of cleaning up
their nuclear trash, while the rest of the world laughs at them.  If
you don't believe this can happen, look at the Trojan nuclear plant in
Oregon; planned for 40 years of operation and clean-up costs of about
$20 million, it closed after 17 years with projected cleanup costs
around $550 million.

Arnold Frisch
Tektronix Laboratories