Article View: sci.physics
Article #8885Re: The Mann and the Hockey Stick
From: SaPeIsMa
Date: Sun, 08 Apr 2012 03:45
Date: Sun, 08 Apr 2012 03:45
194 lines
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10883 bytes
"Billy" <wildbilly@withoutta.net> wrote in message news:wildbilly-E48275.15340506042012@c-61-68-245-199.per.connect.net.au... > In article <8O-dnVqA9bUOwePSnZ2dnUVZ_sMAAAAA@bright.net>, > "SaPeIsMa" <SaPeIsMa@HotMail.com> wrote: > >> "Billy" <wildbilly@withoutta.net> wrote in message >> news:wildbilly-F847DF.16592105042012@c-61-68-245-199.per.connect.net.au... >> > In article <eO2dnaVPBqkWdeDSnZ2dnUVZ_smdnZ2d@bright.net>, >> > "SaPeIsMa" <SaPeIsMa@HotMail.com> wrote: >> > >> >> "Billy" <wildbilly@withoutta.net> wrote in message >> >> news:wildbilly-5076EA.21573204042012@c-61-68-245-199.per.connect.net.au... >> >> > In article <Y8ednQjhR_VcfOHSnZ2dnUVZ_qgAAAAA@giganews.com>, >> >> > RLW <rlwatkins@gmail.com> wrote: >> >> > >> >> >> On Sun, 01 Apr 2012 15:05:30 -0700, Chom Noamsky wrote: >> >> >> >> >> >> > On 3/31/2012 7:27 PM, RLW wrote: >> >> >> >> On Sat, 31 Mar 2012 19:18:28 -0400, Leonard wrote: >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >>> Abracadabra, No More Mediæval Warm Period! >> >> >> >>> >> >> >> >>> The lies behind the failed Hockey Stick >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> <yada, yada, yada> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> I'm starting to get the impression that few posting here >> >> >> >> actually >> >> >> >> know >> >> >> >> what the "hockey stick" graph was intended to represent: >> >> >> >> runaway, >> >> >> >> nearly limitless increase in surface temperature. >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> A) We know that's wrong. >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> B) We know that the troposphere is getting warmer. >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> (A) does nothing to disprove (B). Indeed, (B) is something >> >> >> >> *observed*, >> >> >> >> not a matter open to debate. >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> (B) means that a lot of weather patterns will change and a lot >> >> >> >> of >> >> >> >> ice >> >> >> >> will melt. This doesn't mean Humanity will die off, but it will >> >> >> >> be >> >> >> >> very damn' expensive and inconvenient for a good many folks. >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> I'll hate having to explain to my grandkids that everyone stood >> >> >> >> around >> >> >> >> debating whether it was happening instead of figuring out what >> >> >> >> impact >> >> >> >> it will have and how to solve some of the attendant problems. >> >> >> > >> >> >> > The assumption is it that warming will be all bad. How many >> >> >> > studies >> >> >> > have been done on the potential benefits of global warming? What >> >> >> > it >> >> >> > comes down to is the cost of adaption versus the cost of >> >> >> > correction. >> >> >> > That's assuming it can be corrected, and in the view of a >> >> >> > substantial >> >> >> > portion of the scientific community the results would be modest >> >> >> > or >> >> >> > negligible at best. >> >> >> > >> >> >> > The big problem is elements of the political sphere have been >> >> >> > trying >> >> >> > their best to hook irrelevant agendas to climate change, and to >> >> >> > exploit >> >> >> > it as a tool to push things that wouldn't get backing otherwise. >> >> >> > Get >> >> >> > people alarmed, induce feelings of insecurity, then they'll be >> >> >> > less >> >> >> > resistant when it comes to unpopular causes that have little or >> >> >> > nothing >> >> >> > to do with climate change. >> >> >> > >> >> >> > It's interesting that the Darrell Kaufman study showed climate >> >> >> > has >> >> >> > been >> >> >> > experiencing a long term cooling trend, starting about 2,000 >> >> >> > years >> >> >> > ago, >> >> >> > and was projected to go on another 4,000 years. Is it possible >> >> >> > we're >> >> >> > actually better off with a little warming? Quite possibly we've >> >> >> > averted >> >> >> > a future LIA... >> >> >> >> >> >> I'm not even assuming that the effects will be all bad. The first >> >> >> benefits which come to mind are to shipping and farmers in Canada. >> >> >> Still, >> >> >> any sort of large-scale reorganization of society is costly, so >> >> >> we'd >> >> >> best >> >> >> be puzzling out the details now, before it becomes an immediate >> >> >> problem. >> >> > >> >> > Oh, the sweet security of innocence. >> >> > <http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=hit-them-with-the-hocke >> >> > y> >> >> >> >> >> >> Or is that the sweet security of stupidity >> >> Too bad that "hockey stick" is broken. >> >> >> > >> > Citation, please, or are you so stoopid as to think your opinion is >> > fact? >> > >> >> Google is your friend >> >> http://www.google.com/search?aq=2&oq=hockey+stick+global+warming&ix=seb&so >> urceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&q=hockey+stick+global+warming+debunked >> > > Funny, I thought they just told me what their search paradigm thought I > wanted to hear based on previously visited sites, and then sold my > personal data to vendors and/or the Feds. > > The most direct method for measuring atmospheric carbon dioxide > concentrations for periods before direct sampling is to measure bubbles > of air (fluid or gas inclusions) trapped in the Antarctic or Greenland > ice caps. The most widely accepted of such studies come from a variety > of Antarctic cores and indicate that atmospheric CO2 levels were about > 260�280 ppmv immediately before industrial emissions began and did not > vary much from this level during the preceding 10,000 years (10 ka). In > 1832 Antarctic ice core levels were 284 ppmv. > > We are presently at 390 ppm, and climbing. > > <http://www.ted.com/talks/james_hansen_why_i_must_speak_out_about_climate > _change.html> > > <http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?chanID=sa006&colID=1&articleID=00037A5D > -A938-150E-A93883414B7F0000> > > October 2006 Scientific American Magazine > > Impact from the Deep > > Strangling heat and gases emanating from the earth and sea, not > asteroids, most likely caused several ancient mass extinctions. Could > the same killer-greenhouse conditions build once again? > > By Peter D. Ward > > Philosopher and historian Thomas S. Kuhn has suggested that scientific > disciplines act a lot like living organisms: instead of evolving slowly > but continuously, they enjoy long stretches of stability punctuated by > infrequent revolutions with the appearance of a new species--or in the > case of science, a new theory. This description is particularly apt for > my own area of study, the causes and consequences of mass > extinctions--those periodic biological upheavals when a large proportion > of the planet's living creatures died off and afterward nothing was ever > the same again. > > Since first recognizing these historical mass extinctions more than two > centuries ago, paleontologists believed them to have been gradual > events, caused by some combination of climate change and biological > forces such as predation, competition and disease. But in 1980 the > understanding of mass extinctions underwent a Kuhnian revolution when a > team at the University of California, Berkeley, led by geologist Walter > Alvarez proposed that the famous dinosaur-killing extinction 65 million > years ago occurred swiftly, in the ecosystem catastrophe that followed > an asteroid collision. Over the ensuing two decades, the idea that a > bolide from space could smite a significant segment of life on the earth > was widely embraced--and many researchers eventually came to believe > that cosmic detritus probably caused at least three more of the five > largest mass extinctions. Public acceptance of the notion crystallized > with Hollywood blockbusters such as Deep Impact and Armageddon. > > Now still another transformation in our thinking about life's punctuated > past is brewing. New geochemical evidence is coming from the bands of > stratified rock that delineate mass extinction events in the geologic > record, including the exciting discovery of chemical residues, called > organic biomarkers, produced by tiny life-forms that typically do not > leave fossils. Together these data make it clear that cataclysmic impact > as a cause of mass extinction was the exception, not the rule. In most > cases, the earth itself appears to have become life's worst enemy in a > previously unimagined way. And current human activities may be putting > the biosphere at risk once again. > ---- > > Have a nice read ;O) > > -- You demonstrate why "billy" is Hungarian slang for chamber pot.
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From: "SaPeIsMa" <SaPeIsMa@HotMail.com>
Newsgroups: sci.physics,alt.global-warming,ca.politics,can.politics
References: <CB9D0904.268F7%leonard78sp@primus.ca> <QIadnZ5kA-hjIerSnZ2dnUVZ_goAAAAA@giganews.com> <jlajfb$ori$1@dont-email.me> <Y8ednQjhR_VcfOHSnZ2dnUVZ_qgAAAAA@giganews.com> <wildbilly-5076EA.21573204042012@c-61-68-245-199.per.connect.net.au> <eO2dnaVPBqkWdeDSnZ2dnUVZ_smdnZ2d@bright.net> <wildbilly-F847DF.16592105042012@c-61-68-245-199.per.connect.net.au> <8O-dnVqA9bUOwePSnZ2dnUVZ_sMAAAAA@bright.net> <wildbilly-E48275.15340506042012@c-61-68-245-199.per.connect.net.au>
In-Reply-To: <wildbilly-E48275.15340506042012@c-61-68-245-199.per.connect.net.au>
Subject: Re: The Mann and the Hockey Stick
Date: Sat, 7 Apr 2012 22:45:58 -0500
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