🚀 go-pugleaf

John Pike (johnpike@fas.org) wrote:
> Greg d. Moore wrote:

> > ...... remember, playing with some of the so called "rogue"
> > nations that may believe they have nothing to lose and
> > everything to gain from humilating the US is a dangerous game....

> I guess that this is one of the fundamental issues here. If
> one believes that we are indeed confronted with utterly
> implacable adversaries who are completely Hell-bent on
> our destruction to the exclusion of all other possible
> considerations then perhaps we have a problem.

> OTOH, I have a bit of trouble really believing that the leaders
> in Iran, Iraq, Libya and North Korea wake up every morning and
> start worrying afresh about how they "have nothing to lose and
> everything to gain from humiliating the US." I mean, after
> all, these folks have countries to run [not very large or
> impressive countries, but countries, more or less, all the
> same].

> It seems to me that it is in the natural course of events that
> if anyone in their leadership circles got a burr under his saddle
> about having "nothing to lose and everything to gain from
> humiliating the US" that there would be other folks within the
> leadership circles who would suggest that perhaps other concerns
> had somewhat higher priority, like overfulfilling the quota for
> the Third Five Year Plan, or sniffing out heretics up in the
> mountains, or doing in the chief of the security services, or
> something.

> Rather, the folks who rise to the top of the leadership circles
> of these countries are survivors -- otherwise they would have
> been purged a long time ago. They clearly recognize that nuking
> TheSoleRemainingSuperPower[tm] would be a really neat way of
> turning their dinky little country in to a SmokingRadiatingRuin[tm]
> in about half an hour. Look, these folks have no interest
> whatsoever in seeing their jerkwater statelets getting turned
> into a RadioActiveParkingLot[tm] or a SeaOfRadioActiveGlass[tm]
> and they know full well that the LandOfTheFree[tm] is just the
> one to do this to them if they get too frisky.....

> So to the contrary, these countries have nothing to gain and
> everything to loose from messing with us, particularly in a
> nuclear fashion...

You assume to think that terrorist are rational. Even if they are 
rational their logic is based on a different set of asumptions. 
Suicide bombers have nothing to loose in this world but believe 
they will gain much in the next. Trading a few years of miserable
living in this world for an eternity in heaven looks like a logical
choice to many. 

Also if you bring down the sole super power you improve your statis
imensely. The key is making someone else look responsible. If that someone 
is your major rival who happens to be down wind, they they can kill two
birds with one stone.

> -- 
> John Pike
> Federation of American Scientists  http://www.fas.org/
>  Public Eye                        http://www.fas.org/eye/
>  Intelligence Reform Project       http://www.fas.org/irp/
>  Space Policy Project              http://www.fas.org/spp/

Karen

> Indeed I tremble for my country when I reflect that God is just.
>   - Jefferson