🚀 go-pugleaf

David Birdsey (birdhaex@cais3.cais.com) wrote:
: Rand Simberg (simberg@ix.netcom.com) wrote:

: : Do you really believe that a system that would be ninety percent
: : effective against a massive strike wouldn't be even more effective
: : against a minimal one?  For example, what is ninety percent of one
: : missile?  It is nonsense to talk about system effectiveness percentages

[snip]

: The question remains, though, against what threat would an SDI be aimed? 
: Rather than looking at this issue as a math problem, it would probably be
: more useful to examine it as a policy issue.  First, against an aggressor
: with a large number of nukes, it is quite likely that the fact that the
: USG would retailiate in kind would remove any incentive for an attack.  
: Similary, what nation would launch a single missile when the result would 
: be to turn (Insert enemy du jour here) into rubble?  Ultimately, in days 
: of shrinking resources, I would rather see my defense dollars go 
: elsewhere where they might actually do some good.

Deterrence - i.e. threat of retaliation - only works against rational nations.
There are plenty of nations that are de facto dictatorships led by less
than rational people - examples include Iraq, Iran, Libya, various bits and
pieces of the former Yugoslavia, possibly North Korea, and so on.  If
someone like Saddam Hussein wasn't deterred by what we could (and did) do
to Iraq during DS, why would they be deterred by the *possibility* - certainly
not the certainty with someone like Clinton in office - of nuclear retaliation
against a single-city nuclear strike against the US?

What is the cost of BMD compared with the cost in lives and capital of a
US city?   Think of it as insurance against nuts with nukes -- an increasingly
likely situation.

-- Al

:  

: --
: David Birdsey | "Don't rejoice in Victory. For while you've killed the
:               |  Beast, the bitch that bore him is in heat again." 
:                                                       -Bertholt Brecht
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