🚀 go-pugleaf

> limitingly?) how quickly any given researcher can think of a new  
idea.
> Thus until we have strong AI, the exponential _cannot_ become
> `essentially vertical'. Sure, it'll get steeper, but not  
indefinitely.
> 


I'll not get into a long argument on things that neither of us can  
prove, and besides it'll be 2020 in no time at all and we'll find  
out.

Whether 2020 or 2030 or 2040 is not so much the point. I'd say you  
are doing exactly the linear extrapolation I mentioned. What if there  
are other routes to "strong AI"? What if we just simply use that  
technology that can build things out of atoms and duplicate a brain  
or a portion of a brain, but do it in silicon or germanium  
equivalents to the nuerons? I'm not claiming that particular approach  
will or won't work. I'm saying that the indicators of knowledge  
growth are stable and that I personally believe they tell us  
something very profound about the interactions between areas of  
knowledge.

Whether or not it is by a method which our poor 1990's hugging  
imaginations can come up with, I think the curve will continue and  
will be accomplished by some means. I am not going to pretend to be  
able to do more than take a WAG (Wild Ass Guess) at exactly how it  
will come about. If one route gets slowed down by ThisThatOrTheOther
Activists, it will just force the tide to bypass the obstacle such  
that it will blind side them, come in from an unexpected direction. 


Stopping the tidal wave of growing knowledge is like trying to stop a  
river. No matter how high you build the dam, the water will  
eventually overflow it or find a way around it ... and sometimes with  
truly disastrous results. Results far worse than just letting the  
river flow, or maybe shifting its direction just the tiniest wee bit.

Personally I'd much rather ride the crest to the end ... hopefully  
not like the surfer in "Lucifer's Hammer", but better there than  
underneath the wave...

I'll put a steak dinner on it. Vertical by no later than 2030. If I  
win, I'll even let you make it on the planet of your choice Nick.  
(Haines, not Szabo!) 


Hopefully medical science will be advancing quickly enough to make  
sure we're both there for the finale. I've made my cryonics  
arrangements though, just in case...