🚀 go-pugleaf

In article <1992Dec28.172953.26161@ke4zv.uucp> gary@ke4zv.UUCP (Gary Coffman) writes:

>Shuttle's costs were all accounted for too. The customer, the US
>taxpayer, wanted R&D done to develop a reusable spacecraft.

OK Gary you win. I'll accept that there is nothing wrong with Governement
engaging in activities which would get you or I put in jail. It's OK for
NASA to spend $34 billion and then pretend they didn't.

Under these rules, let's look at the costs. The follwoing cost are
from a spreadsheet I put together to evaluate these costs. We get:


                                Shuttle       SSTO
1. Launches per year [1]:         10           10
2. Amortization years [2]:        30           10
3. Development costs [3]:          0         $3,000M
4. Production costs [4]:        $1,500M      $  333M
5. Amortization costs:          $   66M      $   58M
6. Launch costs [6]:            $  550M      $   20M
7. Total launch cost (5 + 6):   $  616M      $   78M
8. Cost per pound to LEO:       $10,272      $  1304

So even ignoring $34 billion in Shuttle costs AND doubling SSTO
costs, SSTO comes out ahead. Even if you doubled Shuttle flight
rates (which not even NASA pretends any more) and quadrupled
all SSTO costs, SSTO still wins.

[1] I used the number of Shuttle launches scheduled for this year and next.
    Doubling this number will not change the end result. For SSTO, I assume
    it takes 80% the domestic MLV market and that the market doesn't grow.
    I think both of these assumptions are unrealistic but it makes SSTO
    look worse.

[2] Amortization happens over 30 years for Shuttle vs 10 years for SSTO.
    SSTO must recoup costs faster since competitors can be expected. Allowing
    SSTO more time will greatly reduce its costs.

[3] Shuttle gets a free ride here. To keep Gary happy we won't worry about
    the $34 billion Shuttle development costs. To also keep Gary happy, we
    WILL amortize SSTO development costs and double those costs just in
    case.

[4] Again, we use Gary's number for the cost of an orbiter. I have doubled
    the cost of an SSTO to add margin for error.

[6] SSTO launch costs are again, double the estimated costs to add a margin.

    Allen
-- 
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| Allen W. Sherzer | "A great man is one who does nothing but leaves        |
|  aws@iti.org     |  nothing undone"                                       |
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