🚀 go-pugleaf

In article <Bwtsqv.JHr@wm.estec.esa.nl> hevans@wm.estec.esa.nl (H. Evans (WMA)) writes:

   From what I remember of the course in Measurment, Error and Truth,
   the probability (as measured) of intelligent life forming on
   another planet is 1 (with an error of 1).  Not much of a help, but
   we have only measured one instance of intelligent life forming (and
   that is disputable :-)).  Of course, if evidence of life is found,
   then the error in the measurement will decrease to 1/sqrt(n).

   Any attempts to pin down the probability more than this is idle
   speculation but fun.

Not at all. We are not completely ignorant of the processes which are
necessary to generate life, or multicellular life, or intelligent
life. Ignorant, but not completely so. Therefore we have more
information than simply the observation `there is intelligent life
here'. By your argument, we could state that the probability of life
on Mars, the Moon, or Ceres is 1 (with an error of 1). The idea is to
identify those conditions which can lead to life (e.g. the occurence
of suitable clay minerals in an organic-rich water-rich environment,
possibly) and then make an educated guess as to the likelihood of
those conditions.

Nick Haines nickh@cmu.edu