🚀 go-pugleaf

O.K., I just started following this group today, and already I see one of
my favorite topics up for vorciferous debate, so I'll just wade in here.  I
didn't get in on the beginning of this thread, so I'll not put any
quotation here, just some of my ideas.  If I am repeating previous
aurguments, then flame away if it make you feel better.

Premise 1.  We live on a finite planet with finite resources.

Premise 2.  Our technological society is highly dependent on resources that
are being used up faster than they can be replaced.

Premise 3.  Economists seem to insist that we must continue to grow to
increase our standard of living, and the public and politicians seemed to
have bought into this premise.  For proof one only has to look at the last
election to see cries that we are "loosing the American Dream" because we
are not better off than our parents held up as worthy compaign issues.  The
strong implication is that an ever increasing, I would hazard
materialistic, standard of living is something we must all strive for.

Premise 4.  We will not stumble across some unlimited sources of energy
(fusion) or materials (say a way to mine the earths core) here on earth.

Conclusions.  Energy and materials will become increasingly hard to obtain,
and that eventually the net energy and material production will decline
below what is required to maintain some existing standard of living.Unless
we find a way to circumvent the limited resources of our planet, we as a
technologically advanced society will cease to exist.  People will continue
to exist, but society will not be as we know it.  I do not know the time
frame, nor care to hazard a guess, but the end seems to me to be
unavoidable.  

I agree that we can postpone it through careful husbandry of our resources,
but not escape it.  In fact we must learn to take better care of our planet
(control pollution, DECREASE population globally, etc.), if it is going to
be somewhere worth living. However, I see no earthbound solution to the
untimate problem of limited resources.  That lead to only one conclusion,
IMHO, we must look elsewhere besides earth.  We must, therefore, continue
to explore and learn to utilize resources off of our planet, and the only
way to do that is a space program.

Further, we must have a vigorous space program now because I think we are
near a cusp point in history.  That point is where we have the techological
where with all to undertake such a program and still have plentiful and
cheap enough energy and materials to allow society to "afford" it.  If we
wait any significant amount of time before beginning our space exploration,
the sources of very cheap energy, (mid-east oil, shallow coal fields and
the like) will begin to be exhausted.  New sources will be in harder to get
at places like the antarctic, deep water, and deep mines, making them more
expensive to produce.  This will cause costs of everything to rise, placing
an ever greater strain on society.  If the arguments against the space
program being a waste of time and money are at all effective now, imagine
how much more effective they will be energy and materials are several times
as expensive, in constant terms, as they are now.  Then a space program
will then be a luxury that our children or grandchildren could ill afford
in their ever greater struggles simple to stay afloat.  The time for a
space program is not in the future, it is now. Now while we still can.

A space program is not an answer to the problems of the world.  There are
too many of us and we pollute too much, but hese are beyond the ability of
the space program to fix.  I see no other alternative besides expanding
beyond the surface of this planet to escape the fate of an infinitely
consuming society in a finite world.

If anyone can see another approach to avoid this coffin corner we seem to
be headed towards, I would love to hear about it.


James L. Felder            (216)891-4019         -My opinions are MINE-
Sverdrup Technology, Inc.  jfelder@lerc.nasa.gov  I think that should
NASA Lewis Research Center Cleveland 44135        cover all bases, 
                                                  don't you.

"Some people drink from the fountain of knowledge -
    other people gargle"