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Article #7347

Re: Subjective Safety Measure(Re: man-rating)

#7347
From: Ken Arromdee
Date: Thu, 07 Jan 1993 20:44
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In article <1993Jan7.181829.13714@cs.ucf.edu> clarke@acme.ucf.edu (Thomas Clarke) writes:
>The rating of transportation system safety by fatalities per 
>passenger mile always struck me as bogus.  Subjectively, what
>matters is the probability of exit.  That is if I climb in and
>close the door, what are my chances of opening the door and
>climbing out.  By this measure the STS is only about 1 in 50, 
>although it probably isn't as dangerous as, say, a fighter in combat.

In that case, the probability of exit can be made as low as you want, for an
automobile, by stopping along the way.  (The risk of dying on the trip stays
the same, of course.  You just exit more times.)

Unless you mean "for a given length trip, the probability of getting in the
vehicle at the start and coming out at the end, no matter how many stops you
make along the way".  But _this_ measure is of course identical to safety-as-
measured-by-passenger-mile....
--
"On the first day after Christmas my truelove served to me...  Leftover Turkey!
On the second day after Christmas my truelove served to me...  Turkey Casserole
    that she made from Leftover Turkey.
[days 3-4 deleted] ...  Flaming Turkey Wings! ...
   -- Pizza Hut commercial (and M*tlu/A*gic bait)

Ken Arromdee (arromdee@jyusenkyou.cs.jhu.edu, arromdee@jhunix.hcf.jhu.edu)
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References: <1993Jan7.152456.25477@mksol.dseg.ti.com> <1993Jan7.181829.13714@cs.ucf.edu>

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Newsgroups: sci.space,sci.aeronautics
Path: arc1-ca.pugleaf.net!sparky!uunet!blaze.cs.jhu.edu!jyusenkyou!arromdee
From: arromdee@jyusenkyou.cs.jhu.edu (Ken Arromdee)
Subject: Re: Subjective Safety Measure(Re: man-rating)
Message-ID: <1993Jan7.204434.16621@blaze.cs.jhu.edu>
Followup-To: sci.space,sci.aeronautics
Sender: news@blaze.cs.jhu.edu (Usenet news system)
Organization: Johns Hopkins University CS Dept.
References: <1993Jan7.152456.25477@mksol.dseg.ti.com> <1993Jan7.181829.13714@cs.ucf.edu>
Date: Thu, 7 Jan 1993 20:44:34 GMT
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