🚀 go-pugleaf

In article <1993Jan8.173933.12320@ke4zv.uucp> gary@ke4zv.uucp (Gary Coffman)  
writes:
> In article <1993Jan7.181829.13714@cs.ucf.edu> clarke@acme.ucf.edu (Thomas  
Clarke) writes:
> >In article <1993Jan7.152456.25477@mksol.dseg.ti.com>  
pyron@skndiv.dseg.ti.com  
> >(Dillon Pyron) writes:
> >> BTW, the STS [Space Transporation System/the Shuttle]
> >> is the safest transportation system we have, based on fatalities
> >> per passenger mile.  But who would pay $1 billion apiece for a 747?   
(Please
> >> attach a smiley to the safety record).
> >
> >Does anyone have any idea how various means of transport rate 
> >according to probability of exit.  Is the private car better than
> >a commerical airliner?  {Lots of safe little trips would up the
> >exit probability.}
> 
>  So we have about 1 million exits per 
> fatality on aircraft, probably quite a bit better. Using your measure, 
> aircraft and autos are about equally safe, a non-intuitive result.
> 
Good analysis!  So cars and planes are about equally exit-safe.
I was trying to get at something like this in my original comments.
Rationally, planes are the safest way to go from A to B, but
people are not rational or else there wouldn't be lotteries.
My guess is that the percieved safety on which people base
their behavior is something like exit-probability.

Corollary:  DC should strive for 1/million fatalties/entry.  
Maybe since its space 1/ten-thousand would do :-)
Even 1/million is not good enough for some - like John
Madden and Issac Asimov who refuse to fly.
--
Thomas Clarke
Institute for Simulation and Training, University of Central FL
12424 Research Parkway, Suite 300, Orlando, FL 32826
(407)658-5030, FAX: (407)658-5059, clarke@acme.ucf.edu