🚀 go-pugleaf

Suppose DC-X works more-or-less as planned, and they go ahead and
attempt to build a DC-Y/DC-1.  And suppose the pollyannas are right
and it bloats and the dry mass goes up.

There are a couple of scenarios here:

1) It's overweight by some relatively small amount, say, 5000lbs.  This
leaves 5000lbs payload, still a worthwhile cargo.  And the price/lb is
double projections, but still a small fraction of ELVs.  So the
project is still a win, albeit smaller.

2) The mass overrun is a substantial fraction of payload, or exceeds
payload.  Then a possibility would be to delete the life support and
crew cockpit and use the thing unmanned.  This should get enough mass
back to get to case 1, perhaps with slightly lower reliability (due to
automated operation).  Costs would be higher than case 1 due to the
need to buy replacement DC-1s that the robots have totalled that
manned pilots wouldn't have, but could still be at least competitive
with existing ELVs.  The project is pretty much a wash, but valuable
experience is gained.

3) The mass overrun is much larger than that.  At this point, the
project is lost; however I suspect that (given the findings of the
various reports into the general feasability) this is much less likely
than the previous cases.

And in any case, you know a lot more than when you started, and you
can do it right next time! 

Greg.
--
Gregory Bond <gnb@bby.com.au> Burdett Buckeridge & Young Ltd Melbourne Australia
			Dizzy Gillespie: RIP.