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Article #1102

Re: Bashford says: Ozone confuses me.

#1102
From: Greig Ebeling
Date: Thu, 20 Feb 1997 00:00
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Fred Pribac <fred@vortex.shm.monash.edu.au> wrote:

>Epidemiological studies suggest that incidence of skin cancer
>has been rising in australia over the past 40 years.

True.

>Surface measurements of UV also show upward trends over later
>decades.

There is some speculation regarding the relevance of this, considering
that UV increases are greater in high lats, where natural UV levels
are low, and also that higher surface UVR does not necessarily
translate into higher exposure, considering sunwise trends, and
blockout.

>Given that early exposure to UV has been linked to increased
>incidence of skin cancer in later life - it is reasonable to
>guess that these trends may be correlated.

Actually it is far more likely that it was caused by the suntanning
trend of the late 60s and 70s.  This is obvious from the fact that
skin cancer has a long latency period.  Also, ozone depletion has only
occurred at a significant degree in the last 10 years.  Any
correlation between UV-B exposure and increases in cancer would need
to show a recent increase. This is not shown in the data I have seen.

...Greig
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From: eggsoft@sydney.dialix.oz.au (Greig Ebeling)
Subject: Re: Bashford says: Ozone confuses me.
Date: 1997/02/20
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