🚀 go-pugleaf

Dear Mister, Miss

For the TNO Road-Vehicles Research Institute I am currently conducting a
study on the future costs and resulting commercial viability of battery
electric, hybrid and fuel cell vehicles in comparison to vehicles
propelled by an internal combustion engine.

Forecasting commercial viability implies estimating the retail price of
the above-mentioned vehicles as well as the operating costs. The
approach of the study is to combine expert opinions with a modestly
disaggregated analysis of cost factors.=20

I want to use learning curves among others for the analysis and
extrapolation of component prices or the costs of certain manufacturing
processes. Learning curve theory is very empirical and was introduced as
a theory to be used on one plant. I want to use them for a word wide
branch of industry. To apply them in this context the big problem is to
have empirical data to calibrate the curve. Im looking for public
reports or publications providing learning curves of companies or
branches of industry. A search through (international) databases has
rendered no result except some data about the T-ford. Im hoping that
someone of you can help me to acces those sources if there are any.

Its very tricky matter to use learning curves for this kind of study,
but its the best I came up so Im game for fruitful discussion about
either the costs the curve is applicable to or maybe better models to
asses future mass production cost advantages.

Ref. The Californian Institute of Transportation Studies has used this
approach to forecast electric motor costs. (The clean fuels and
electric vehicles report, april 1997)

With Kind regards

Joris Prikken
TNO Road-Vehicles Research Institute
Section Advanced Power Trains
Schoemakerstraat 97
P. O. Box 6033
2600 JA Delft
The Netherlands
tel:	+31 15-2696415
e-mail:	Prikken@wt.tno.nl