🚀 go-pugleaf

"Iconoclast" <gassasb@earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:3D953CE4.2EF388EC@earthlink.net...
> Fred Elbel wrote:
> >
> > Wed, 25 Sep 2002
> > From: Prof. Norm Matloff
> >          UC Davis
> > Subject: The future
> >
> > To: age discrimination/H-1B e-newsletter
> >
> > This will be one of my longer postings, but I think it is one of the
> > most important.  I ask for your patience.
> >
> > I'm enclosing below an editorial in last week's Computerworld.  The
> > editor had surveyed some executives who had won awards from
> > Computerworld -- not a very scientific sample, but with results worth
> > looking at.  The most relevant passage is the following:
> >
> > Is  the  IT  labor  market  shrinking?  Most  said  yes...One  IT
> > executive said it's too expensive to develop software in the U.S.
> > "Techno nerd" jobs will outright disappear, particularly ones in
> > programming and application development.  But database, network and
> > systems administrators are safe.
> >
> > Sadly, this is basically the same advice I have been giving students
> > who ask me.  I would differ somewhat from the executives surveyed in
> > certain aspects.  Programming and application development jobs will
> > NOT "outright disappear [to overseas]," but I do believe that the
> > lion's share of them will be done by H-1Bs.
> >
> > As John Miano puts it:
> >
> > ...there were 202,000 [H-1B visas granted] last year and if 53% were
> > programmers (the last number I saw from the INS) that means there were
> > 106,000 H-1B programmers for [a net new] 85,000 jobs.
> >
> > How can that be?  Well, some of those visas were renewals, some of the
> > existing jobs were cases of Americans being replaced by H-1Bs (see
> > below), and so on.  Due to differing fiscal-year definitions, the two
> > numbers above aren't quite for the same time periods, and then there
> > are issues of job titles and definitions.
> >
> > Nevertheless, it should be clear that the percentage of new hires in
> > programming jobs filled by H-1Bs is much, much higher than the 28%
> > figure found by the Dept. of Commerce a few years ago.  (That figure
> > itself was already startlingly high to a lot of people who aren't
> > immersed in the situation.
> >
> > And even though I too have been telling students that "database,
> > network and systems administrators are safe" for them (on the grounds
> > that facility with English and American culture is important for these
> > jobs), I'm not so sure of that either.  For example, according to the
> > complaint filed by Guy Santiglia against Sun Microsytems (one of the
> > most aggressive lobbyists to get Congress to set high H-1B quotas),
> > Sun laid off large numbers of American SYSTEM ADMINISTRATORS and
> > replaced them by H-1Bs.  So that job category doesn't sound so safe
> > after all.
> >
> > That isn't even counting what I call the "blue collar-ization" of the
> > whole systems administrator business.  Consider the two main worlds
> > here, Microsoft and UNIX.  After Microsoft started the MCSE
> > "certificate" concept a few years ago, large numbers of nontechnical
> > people took MCSE courses, got certificates, and became technicians.  A
> > lot of them didn't have college degrees, coming for example from jobs
> > at Home Depot.  But in the UNIX world, people doing mostly the same
> > kind of work (granted, sometimes doing a bit of programming) have
> > generally had college degrees in CS or other technical fields.  Yet
> > the MCSE people are basically system administrators.  There is already
> > a trend for MCSE types to start doing UNIX too, and I believe that
> > that will accelerate.
> >
> > Now all of this is in direct contrast to the screaming articles in the
> > press just four years ago, telling our young university students to
> > study computer science.  This was supposed to be the most lucrative,
> > growth-destined profession in America's future.  Even those of us who
> > were raising dissenting voices at the time will be surprised by the
> > degree of implosion of this profession in the next few years, I fear.
> >
> > I've always noted that I am one of the few people on either side of
> > the H-1B debate who are not affected by the issue personally.  I've
> > got this nice job with tenure, but I do feel for those who are
> > affected, and most of all what it is doing to morale of our young
> > people.  There are only so many times that young people will allow the
> > major institutions of society -- the press, Congress, Big Business,
> > and yes, academia -- to lie to them.  In that regard, I am also
> > enclosing, following the Computerworld editorial,  a letter from a
> > member of this e-mail list, which expresses these concerns quite
> > eloquently.
> >
> > Norm
> >
> >
http://www.computerworld.com/managementtopics/management/story/0,10801,74184
,00.html
> >
> > Mapping IT's Future By PATRICIA KEEFE SEPTEMBER 16, 2002
> >
> > We  received a letter last week from a dispirited worker with 15 years
> > of  IT experience. He's been laid off, can't find a job and expects to
> > leave the profession. He says the influx of cheap labor that cost him
> > his job is "the beginning of the dismantling of the American
> > technology worker."
> >
> > Coincidently, some industry pundits are strongly predicting the demise
> > of  corporate IT departments. That will happen by 2006 or thereabouts,
> > according   to   David  Foote,  president  of  Foote  Partners  and  a
> > Computerworld  columnist.  He  and many others predict that IT will be
> > dispersed  throughout  the  enterprise  as  part  of the fabric of the
> > company.  Business  users  will  be  capable  of taking on lower-level
> > technical  tasks,  freeing  a  smaller core of IT staffers to focus on
> > analytical and strategic issues.
> >
> > Will  CIOs  and IT departments become obsolete? Are they morphing into
> > new  roles?  What  impact  will  a computer-literate workforce have on
> > changing those roles?
> >
> > I  threw  those  questions  out  to  Computerworld's Premier 100 award
> > winners  and  Executive Suite community members, and an impressive 160
> > of  them took the time to send me some thought-provoking feedback. The
> > economy  aside, most IT leaders remain optimistic that there will be a
> > role for IT. Reading over their comments, I gleaned this consensus:
> >
> > Is  the  IT  labor  market  shrinking?  Most  said  yes, thanks to the
> > evolution  of  the  technology itself. As technology becomes easier to
> > user,  more efficient, self-healing and ubiquitous, a lot of the heavy
> > lifting can be left to business units and users, or become outsourced.
> > One  IT  executive  said it's too expensive to develop software in the
> > U.S.  "Techno nerd" jobs will outright disappear, particularly ones in
> > programming  and  application  development.  But database, network and
> > systems  administrators  are safe. "They are the unsung heroes of IT,"
> > another exec said.
> >
> > Most  said  IT  departments are permanent, but shrinking. Forget about
> > the nuts and bolts. Ideally, said one IT vice president, "the emphasis
> > in  technology  will  move  away  from  managing  projects to applying
> > information  systems  effectively." Others said to prepare for a heavy
> > emphasis   on   standards-setting,   infrastructure-tending,   process
> > re-engineering  and  strategizing.  Understanding the business side of
> > the  equation  will become absolutely critical, especially as business
> > units   take   over   some   IT  functions  and  development  efforts.
> > Adaptability  and  a  lifelong  commitment  to  learning  will  become
> > essential.
> >
> > What  about  the  impact  of  a more computer-savvy workforce? Most of
> > those  who  replied  carefully  distinguished  between what one reader
> > called  experienced users of technology and experienced technologists.
> > "They  are magnificent users of what others have already created, sort
> > of the race car drivers of the techno world," said one veteran IT pro.
> > To  be  sure,  the  younger  generations will enter the workforce with
> > higher expectations for performance and service, which in turn will be
> > provided  by new waves of IT workers. "As technology becomes easier to
> > use,  IT  becomes  more  complex  to manage," said one college dean of
> > computing.
> >
> > Although  the future of IT seems safe, don't get too comfortable. "The
> > genie  is out of the bottle," warns one of your peers. "Stop believing
> > and  behaving  [like]  you are the only resource who can do IT-related
> > tasks!"   Another  algorithm  for  success  is  to  "keep  reinventing
> > yourself" because traditional IT is about to go by the boards.
> >
> > As  our  kids  become  more technically astute and the technology gets
> > better,  it  will put pressure on traditional IT workers to stay ahead
> > of the needs of end users in order to stay employed. But staying ahead
> > is what you've always done.
> >
> > Patricia Keefe is editorial director at Computerworld. You can contact
> > her at patricia_keefe@computerworld.com.
> >
> > From: ***********
> > Date: Tue, 24 Sep 2002
> > Subject: Re: Peoria Journal Star article  - Letters to Editor
> >
> > Dr. Matloff:
> >
> > Yes, you can post the following article in your newsletter:
> >
> > The public and the media must realize and come to terms with the
> > negative effects engineers' and programmers' job insecurities are
> > having on our teenagers and youngsters.  The upcoming American
> > generation is crucial to the United States' technological survival.
> >
> > My two sons are aged fifteen and ten.  My high school son is a Science
> > Honors student while my ten year old has been accepted in accelerated
> > math.  Due to my previous layoffs along with those of fellow engineers
> > and programmers, my wife is discouraging our sons from majoring in
> > engineering and\or computer science.
> >
> > I'm certain that this same scenario is being played out in thousands
> > of American homes.  Why should our children "rack their brains out" in
> > Science, Math and Engineering in good American colleges for four years
> > only to face stagnant wages and layoffs upon graduation?
> >
> > The H-1B and other engineering wage busting issues are symptomatic of
> > something much more sinister and dangerous for America in the long
> > term and this is government's, academia's and corporation's abandoning
> > and forsaking their homegrown technological base.  Concurrent with
> > this ominous trend is the draining of our technical prowess to third
> > world and potentially dangerous nations.
> >
> > I'm certain that Iraq's Sadam Hussein and Al Qaeda's Osama Bin Laden
> > would love to have access to our communications' cryptographic
> > secrets.
> >
> > If these trends continue, America will become a second-rate
> > technological nation in ten-to-twenty years. This is the fate that
> > awaits a nation that takes its engineering and scientific talent for
> > granted.
> >
> > My formative youthful years were in the sixties right after the launch
> > of Soviet Sputnik.  In those days American culture promoted and
> > nurtured its scientific and engineering career paths for its youth.
> > Companies held on to their engineers and scientists.
> >
> > I know quite a few retirees in their seventies and eighties who
> > retired after 30-to-40 years with one company.  It's important to note
> > that their salaries were not that high at their retirement.
> >
> > These retired engineers and scientists were not greedy individuals.
> > All they wanted was a livable wage, good benefits, innovative work
> > environment and job security. Corporations and government being only
> > too happy to give them these small benefits realized the even bigger
> > return they received with long term in-house technical know-how that
> > these individuals provided.
> >
> > Forty years ago companies valued their human technical resources.
> > Companies had long range visions.  For example, RCA's David Sarnoff as
> > ruthless as he may have been (I believe that he stole Philo
> > Farnsworth's TV ideas) never believed in laying off his treasured
> > engineers and scientists.  (This was relayed to me by a retired former
> > RCA engineer.
> >
> > Sarnoff was bent upon making RCA a world-class electronics power, and
> > he had a long term view of where he wanted his company to be in a
> > ten-to-twenty year time period and beyond.  Consequently, RCA
> > programmers, engineers and scientist had long term job security.
> >
> > Unfortunately, Sarnoff died years before RCA's 1986 takeover by GE and
> > "Neutron Jack" Welch, and those once valued RCA engineers and
> > scientists found themselves on the street jobless.  GE's long term
> > view of the future ended with the next quarter's earnings and profits.
> >
> > When GE laid off 800 engineers and scientists at its Astrospace
> > Division in East Windsor, NJ, (formerly RCA Astroelectronics) and
> > Valley Forge, PA, locations in 1991-1992, men and women with
> > doctorates and patents in high technology space, communications and
> > electronics specialties were included. To me, this proved that GE had
> > no vision of the future other than to placate the corporate board
> > room's lust and greed for quarterly profit.
> >
> > Incidentally, this layoff resulted in the loss of GE's one billion
> > dollar Mars Observer probe as well as the multimillion dollar failures
> > of GE's Landsat and Telstar satellites in 1993 and 1994.
> >
> > Unfortunately, neither corporate nor public (i.e., government and
> > media) America has learned its lessons from these past fiascoes and
> > mistakes.
> >
> > **************
> >
> > ----- End forwarded message -----
>
> Excellent post!  I spoke with the head of Human Resources at a Fortune
> 500 technology company in the Boulder-Broomfield technology corridor
> today and she said that in Boulder County the technology companies have
> imploded.  Her recommendation to laid-off technology workers was to look
> for a new career in a non-technology industry.

Yeah, but what industry?  The only industry we have left are airlines and
ESL classes.