🚀 go-pugleaf

In <1992Dec22.185741.9823@berlioz.nsc.com> worden@bouncer.nsc.com (Dennis Worden) writes:



>The fact that you now have an open door with a goat behind it does not
>change the fact that you have 2 door and 1 prize.  

True, however there is not equal probability associated with those two
doors.   Stop and think a little, Dennis.  Or come out to NYC, design an
experiment yourself, and we'll have a little wager.

>Or put it another
>way, if you consider this new information on the same puzzle, why do you
>freeze the probability of the original guess at 33%?  

This is really far-fetched.  You make a selection of one door out of three.
The probability that you chose correctly is 1/3.  Why would this change? It
is not a question of "freezing the probability"  It is the 50/50 crowd that
plays games.

Monty equivalently says:  "You can have the door you chose, or BOTH doors
that you did not chose" without opening anything.  Now would you switch?
It is the same problem.

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