🚀 go-pugleaf

On Mon, 1 Jan 1996, Carl S. Gutekunst wrote:

> In article <4calgp$1rd@nnrp1.news.primenet.com> you write:
> >It ain't self-righteousness... he's just plain right. All those
> >"easter eggs" in an operating system, and people wonder why the
> >"new, improved" version takes twice as much memory, and runs 
> >slower, on a "faster" machine, than the old "obsolete" version. 
> >It's because the software industry has become like Detroit in 
> >the early '60's, or at least one company has...
> 
> You are absolutely right, but just as a thought exercise, I ask you who is
> going to tear down Bill Gates' pedestal?  And when?  Not the Japanese; they
> still show no sign whatsoever of understand software development.  I've worked
> pretty closely with people from Sony and Hitachi; these folks are clueless.
> Not the UNIX vendors; they seem to have completely forgotten what it was that
> made them successful in the first place, and they never have gotten a handle
> on the idea that end users are *not* PhDs in CS.
> 
Now it's *your* turn to be absolutely right :) I am aware of the Japanese
failure to understand the consumer software industry. They might be able
to make embedded systems, and even good video games, but when it comes
to business and home software, I think they fail because they don't 
know western culture, or maybe western "mind" is a better term. 

It's good to recall just how Microsoft got to be where it is, and that's
from developing *necessary* applications -- first product was the first
high level language for the first personal computer, a BASIC for the 
Altair. They were then able to port that language to the Apple, the 
Atari, and maybe the TRS-80 and Commodore line (don't remember for sure). 
Of course, their *real* "killer app" was MSDOS, for a major hardware
introduction. 

The point is, Microsoft got to where it is because of serendipity
to a large extent. They were in the right place at the right time
with the right stuff, or at least something that worked. So for some
other company or nation to give them the kick they need, there needs
to be some *significant* new niche in the market. The closest thing
I've seen to that niche is the explosive development in the internet
in the past year. That would give you some clues to who might become
the "next microsoft", except I don't see Sun or Netscape doing it. 

If you throw a "which country" angle on the question, I've seen some
very impressive figures on software growth from India, and the former
Soviet bloc countries also have "what it takes", IMO. 

We might see India become a country where software subcontracts go,
as long as the competent programers from there, stay there. The 
cost of development is just too cheap to overlook. Sigh, another
industry gone offshore. 

The Russians also have the minds, and a more generally well educated
society than India (better than just about anybody, in fact). They
have a good understanding of western mind, and like to compete. We'll
probably see a lot of work farmed out that way. Because of their 
level society, it's not hard for an engineer to listen to an artist,
and vice versa. The contribution of the arts in sofware should not
be underestimated. 

But what "killer app"? I dunno. I don't think Netscape or Java are 
really going to be enough to bootstrap a giant. There might be a 
new hardware bombshell on the market to help catylize the industry, 
in which case Sun better make it. 

My mind is all sweaty now.