🚀 go-pugleaf

nelson@crynwr.com (Russell Nelson) writes:

>DOS is dead.  (At most) A year from now no one will be programming for MS-DOS.

>What will spur the abandonment of DOS?  Well, people have long
>acknowledged that DOS is not a real operating system.  The only
>reason to run DOS is because you can't run a real operating system.
>We now have the metal to run those operating systems.  Because the
>benefits of a real operating system will outweigh the cost, people
>will run them on their new machines.

	Perhaps, but with the large installed base I'd say that DOS apps
will be being written and installed for quite some time now. 

>That leaves DOS only running on 8088s and 80286's.  These machines
>will be worth very little and so will be purchased by people on tight
>budgets (or donated to nonprofits, etc).  There will be not much
>money to spend on software.  But of course, we know the cost of
>software development is not going down like hardware costs.

	This is true to some extent.... But there's something I've 
noticed - there is a move in many places to put hot new hardware on
everyone's desk. But does a person who writes memos and sets up appts really
need a workstation ? Hardware is nice, but let's not divorce it from
needs.

>So, the only people buying expensive new software will be people
>running the new real OS(es).  Programmers interested in making the
>big bucks will program to this new audience.  And it *won't* be
>Windows, which is as lame an OS as DOS is.

>Oh yes, there will be *some* people programming for MS-DOS, just like
>there are still new programs being written for the Zenith Z-100,
>Tandy Color Computer, Commodore C-64, CP/M, etc.  But there will not
>be much money in it.

	Now here you are WAY off. OS/2 ? Limited apps, and certainly a 
PERCEPTION of limited apps. Perception drives this marketplace. And the
perception is that windows is moving. 

	Unix ? (ie, Solaris, other 386 based systems)... I doubt it. Most
people LIKE having dumb little machines that they can turn on and off 
without harm. DOS does not require an expert on site, while UNIX does. And
rightly or wrongly, Unix is perceived to be unfreindly. I believe that MS will
win this battle, even though I would rather see something better.

James A. Robertson

>-russ <nelson@crynwr.com>  I'm proud to be a humble Quaker!
>Crynwr Software            Crynwr Software sells packet driver support.
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