Re: Arrest Slow Drivers (n left and fast drivers in right)

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Article #272

#272

From: Tedd McHenry
Date: Thu, 03 Dec 1998 00:00

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> >In fact there *is* a cause-effect
> >relationship between speed and accident rate, 

I'm not aware of any data (or models) to support this.  NHTSA studies
have shown that there is a Gaussian relationship between speed and
accident rate on non-urban highways.  The further you are from the mean
traffic speed (above or below) the greater your risk of having an
accident.  But a causal relationship (in the context of a correlation,
which was what was being discussed) implies a more linear model, whereby
greater speed would mean greater risk of accident.  This just simply
isn't the case.

At the extreme upper end of the speed scale, the relationship between
speed and risk would look somewhere linear, and therefore somewhat
causal, in this sense.  But, if I recall the figures correctly, this is
only true for the range several standard deviations above mean traffic
speed (20 miles per hour or more).  So it hardly qualifies as a general
fact about speed and risk.  Also, because the distribution of risk is
more-or-less symmetrical about the mean speed, there is actually an
apparent inverse correlation between speed and risk--the slower you go
the greater your risk--in the range well below the mean traffic speed. 
This negative correlation is every bit as meaningful as the cause-effect
relationship you asserted.

Tedd

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From: Tedd McHenry <tedd_mchenry@hp.com>
Subject: Re: Arrest Slow Drivers (n left and fast drivers in right)
Date: 1998/12/03
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