🚀 go-pugleaf

In article <SKfw30zmCGmZ-pn2-mIH9KFoHEOvd@localhost>,
doug.bissett"at"attglobal.net (Doug Bissett), a long time
supporter and wilful provider of *proof* that no one need
change their views with regard to oil, the possibility of
nuclear war or threats posed to the environment by
overpopulation etc. (And all the other *avoidance games*
that the wilfully blind play with each other), agreed with

"Sammy (The) Sediment" <spamno@nospam.com> who,
on Fri, 1 Oct 1999 21:37:13,  wrote:

> > China reigned in its population growth to the extent that it now allowing
> > more than one child per family, and population growth in Africa has been
> > slowed by disease and war.
> >
> > New scientific studies suggest that oil is a replenishable resouce generated
> > deep within the earth, and at any rate identified reserves are such that oil
> > is less expensive than ever.
> >
> > Baseless hysteria and scaremongering help not.

Hmmm . . *Sammy (The) Sediment* has now been told
of a different paradigm by several *knowledgeable people .  .  .

But, as is always the case, we are offered living proof that
*deontic thinking* is alive and well in Alberta . . . . .

> Saw an article, recently (try http://albertareport.com - no, it does
> not have the  www in it), that indicated the SCIENTIFIC community has
> proven SCIENTIFICALLY, that the good old earth can, easily support
> about 10 times the current population. I don't think we need to worry,
> just yet <g>.
> ******************************
> From the PC of Doug Bissett
> doug.bissett at attglobal.net
> The " at " must be changed to "@"
> ******************************

Perhaps you need not be concerned *just yet* Doug.
However, some concerns *might* rise to ther fore of
your thoughts *AFTER* you read and understand the
following including the information presented at the
URL's in support of the concerns and predictions contained herein:

Subject: The Best Kept Secret
Date:     Thu, 30 Sep 1999 22:14:33 -1000
From:     "BrainFood" <brain@chatzilla.com>

(sndNewsTo: taxfree@connection.com *Permission to reprint granted!

* HOT NEWSLETTER: GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATES (GIU) *

GUI is the best source of world "intelligence"
(not news) Ihave seen.  (Intelligence is news
before it becomes news.)  For example, I have
been watching OPEC (especially, Iran, Venezuela,
Saudi Arabia) rebuilding the oil weapon to destroy
the West.  Why won't our government tell us what's
going on?  According to Senator Jessie Helms, it's
a matter of "National Security" -- it's in the black!
In other words, you and your families won't have
any warning until it's too late to do anything
about it.

Read the future news that neither your government
nor the mass media want you to know, subscribe to
the free GIU:

http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/subscribe.asp

SPECIAL FILES

See THE POST-PETROLEUM PARADIGM -- AND
POPULATION,  by WalterYoungquist at

http://dieoff.com/page171.htm

See Richard Duncan's letters and Muslim oil
graphs at  http://dieoff.com/page172.htm

See Richard Duncan's WORLD PETROLEUM
LIFE-CYCLE: Encircling the Production Peak
at http://dieoff.com/page133.htm

See Richard Duncan's THE OLDUVAI THEORY:
Sliding Towards a Post-Industrial Stone Age at
http://dieoff.com/page125.htm
    ------------------------------------------------

THE BEST-KEPT SECRET IN WASHINGTON
Brain Food -- Third Quarter, 1999
by Jay Hanson -- www.dieoff.org
Permission to reprint expressly granted!
A formatted version of the document is archived at
http://dieoff.com/page173.htm

"WHATEVER THE TWISTS AND TURNS in global politics,
whatever the ebb of imperial power and the flow of
national pride, one trend in the decades following
World War II progressed in a straight and rapidly
ascending line -- the consumption of oil.  If it can
be said, in the abstract, that the sun energized the
planet, it was oil that now powered its human
population, both in its familiar forms as fuel and in
the proliferation of new petrochemical products.  Oil
emerged triumphant, the undisputed King, a monarch
garbed in a dazzling array of plastics.  He was
generous to his loyal subjects, sharing his wealth to,
and even beyond, the point of waste.  His reign was a
time of confidence, of growth, of expansion, of
astonishing economic performance.  His largesse
transformed his kingdom, ushering in a new drive-in
civilization.  It was the Age of Hydrocarbon Man."
 -- Daniel Yergin, 1992. [1]

"What if tomorrow Palestinian leader Yasir
Arafat met with representatives from each of
the 19 Muslim petroleum-exporting countries
and proposed an entirely new organization called
the 'Alliance of Muslim Petroleum Exporting
Nations' -- "AMPEC" for short?"  -- Richard
Duncan, 1997 letter to President Clinton. [2]

The genius of our so-called democracy lies in
its stability and predictability.  James Madison
(1751-1836) is known as "the father of the U.S.
Constitution". [3]  Madison's primary political
concern centered on the maintenance of social
stability by the political and social control of
competing factions; control by government itself
was a secondary consideration. With those objectives
in mind, the framers crafted an elaborate
political system:

*  Where "first object of government" (highest priority)
    was "the faculties" of acquiring property. [4]
*  Where the struggle of classes and passions (e.g.,
    religious conflict) was replaced with the struggle of
    interests in the economic sphere.
*  Where the political system was extremely
    resistant to change.
*  Where political power was reserved for a white male
   minority while projecting the illusion of self-government
   to the majority.

Madison scholar Richard K. Matthews explains:

"By consciously denying virtually all but a handful of
citizens any role in a governmental structure that, by
design, was to be run by an elite of superior ability
(who nonetheless would have to check and balance each
other), Madison left [economic struggle] as the prime
avenue for humanity to search for meaning." [5]

Nowadays, the terms "democracy" and "market
economy" are often used interchangeably.  Political
decisions in a market economy are stunningly simple:
one dollar, one vote.  In short, the market economy
serves as a stealth political system to foster rational
thought, universal values based on calculation, and
world peace based on self-interest.  The market economy
succeeds because it satisfies our hunter/gatherer genetic
drives for dominance, sex, food, and material possessions.

One hundred years ago, fundamentally defective economic
theories led to two world wars with millions killed.  Today,
the same defective economic theories are taught to students
all over the world and are leading to a new generation of
world wars with billions killed.

America will soon lose the stability the framers
worked so hard to create because it is becoming
wholly dependent upon inherently unstable
(authoritarian) oil-producing Muslim nations
like Indonesia.  It happened twenty-five years ago
when OPEC quadrupled world oil prices and plunged
America into "stagflation".  Fortunately, the non-OPEC
producers still had a HUGE unexploited oil cushion
to fall back on and simply pumped central bankers
out of their economic crisis.

But that was 1973 and this is 1999 -- twenty-five years
later the oil cushion is gone.  Muslim nations will soon
control virtually all of the world's oil exports.  Since
neither capital nor labor can create energy, the next
round of energy-shortage-induced stagflation will leave
central bankers helpless and they will seek military
solutions to their economic problems.

It's the best-kept secret in Washington, Whitehall,
Brussels, and Jerusalem, but it's just a matter of
time until word hits the street...

ENERGY SOURCES

"By definition, energy 'sources' must produce
more energy than they consume, otherwise
they are called 'sinks'."

The market economy burns energy to make
money -- there is no substitute for energy.
Although the economy treats energy just
like any other resource, it's not like any
other resource. Available energy is the
precondition for all resources --
including energy resources.

The key to understanding energy issues is
to look at the "energy price" of energy.
Energy "sources" that consume more
energy than they produce are called "sinks"
and are worthless as sources of energy.  This
thermodynamic law applies no matter how
high the "money price" of energy goes.

The market economy receives almost 80 percent
of its energy subsidies from nonrenewable fossil
sources: oil, gas, and coal. They are called
"nonrenewable" because, for all practical
purposes, they're not being made any more.
The reason they are called "fossil" is because
they were "produced" by nature from dead plants
and animals over several hundred million years.

In the 1950s, oil producers discovered about fifty
barrels of oil for every barrel invested in drilling
and pumping.  Today, the figure is only about five
for one.  Sometime around 2005, that figure will
become one for one.  In other words, even if the
price of oil reaches $500 a barrel, it wouldn't make
energy sense to look for new oil in the United States
after 2005 because itwould consume more energy
than it would recover.

The increasing energy cost of oil sets up a positive
feedback loop: since oil is used directly or indirectly
in everything, as the energy costs of oil increase, the
energy costs of everything else increase too -- including
other forms of energy.  For example, oil provides about
50% of the fuel used in coal extraction.[6]

Immutable energy laws tell us that a growing economy
must eventually consume more energy than it can buy.
When America spends more-than-one unit of energy to
produce enough goods and services to buy one unit of
energy, it will be physically impossible to cover the
overhead (money is irrelevant).  At that point, America's
economic machine is "out of gas".  Forever!

EUR OIL

For many years, geologists and petroleum engineers
have published estimates of how much oil can be
recovered from any given basin.  This is known as
"Estimated Ultimately Recoverable" (or EUR) oil.
Remarkably, estimates of total worldwide EUR oil
have varied little over the past half century! [7]

Forty years ago, geologist M. King Hubbert developed
a method for projecting future oil production and
predicted that oil production in the lower 48 states
would peak about 1970.  This prediction has proved
to be remarkably accurate.  Both total and peak yields
have risen slightly compared to Hubbert's original
estimate, but the timing of the peak and the general
downward trend of production were correct.  Hubbert
showed that oil production begins to peak and starts
to decline when approximately half of the EUR oil
has been recovered.

IHS Energy Group (formerly Petroconsultants) is
the world's leading provider of data and analysis
for oil exploration and production.  The company
maintains its headquarters at a custom-built
communications center in Geneva.  It also has
offices in London, Houston, Calgary, Sydney, Perth,
Singapore and Hong Kong and a global information
network.  The backbone of the company is a staff of
300, embracing numerous nationalities, cultures and
professions, specializing in petroleum geology, geophysics,
petroleum engineering, economics, political science,
petroleum legislation, cartography, computer science
and information technology. [8]

In 1995, Petroconsultants published a report for oil
industry insiders ($32,000 per copy) titled WORLD
OIL SUPPLY 1930-2050 which concluded that world
oil production could peak as soon as the year 2000
and decline to half that level by 2025.  Large and
permanent increases in oil prices are predicted
after the year 2000. [9]

NO OIL?  NO ECONOMY!

"If one considers the last one hundred years of the U.S.
experience, fuel use and economic output are highly
correlated... Energy quality is by far the dominant
factor." -- Cleveland, Costanza, Hall, and Kaufmann

One of the most important aspects of energy is
its "quality". Different kinds of fuel have different
qualities. For example, coal contains more energy
per pound than wood, which makes coal more efficient
to store and transport than wood.  Oil has a higher
energy content per unit weight and burns at a higher
temperature than coal; it is easier to transport, and
can be used in internal combustion engines.  A diesel
locomotive uses only one-fifth the energy of a
coal-powered steam engine to pull the same train.

Oil is the highest quality energy we use, making
up about 38 percent of the world energy supply.  No
other energy source equals oil's intrinsic qualities
of extractability, transportability, versatility and cost.
The qualities that enabled oil to take over from coal
as the front-line energy source in the industrialized
world in the middle of this century are as relevant
today as they were then.  Oil's many advantages
provide 1.3 to 2.45 times more economic value
per kilocalorie than coal. [10]

Studies show that nothing can replace oil:

"A recent review of the future prospects of all
alternatives has been published. The summary
conclusion reached is that there is no known
complete substitute for petroleum in its many
and varied uses."[11]

For example, when the oil's gone, food production
will drop to a fraction of today's numbers: "If the
fertilizers, partial irrigation [in part provided by
oil energy], and pesticides were withdrawn, corn
yields, for example, would drop from 130 bushels
per acre to about 30 bushels." [12]

RICHARD DUNCAN: IT'S THE EXPORTS, STUPID!

In 1997, Richard Duncan developed a new model to
forecast oil production called the NUMERATE-EMPIRIC
MODEL.[13]

In the course of his research, Duncan discovered that
Muslim nations would soon control market economies
because they will control virtually all of the oil export
market.

In a 1997 letter to President Clinton and
Senator Jessie Helms, Duncan warned:

"What if tomorrow Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat met
with representatives from each of the 19 Muslim
petroleum exporting countries and proposed an entirely
new organization called the 'Alliance of Muslim
Petroleum Exporting Nations' -- 'AMPEC' for short?

"This proposal alone could cause World stock markets to
fall 50% in one day.  And crucially, it could ignite
both (1) a World Petroleum War, and (2) a World Holy
War (called a 'Jihad' by Muslims).  I view an 'AMPEC
shock' as looming likely because powerful Muslim
forces are pushing Mr. Arafat (and others) further
every day."

Senator Helms replied that America's oil dependence
had become a threat to national security:  "The
Commerce Department recently released a report
which found that U.S. dependence on foreign oil has
become a threat to national security.  The government
should not have allowed its national security to be
placed in such a vulnerable position."

..President Clinton was apparently too busy to reply...

Duncan is certainly right!  Who can forget the headlines
of 1979:  "Shah flees Iran ... Ayatollah Khomeini returns
from exile .. 63 Americans taken hostage in Iran ... many
states initiate gas rationing programs ... ABC begins nightly
report with 'The Iran Crisis: America Held Hostage' ... OPEC
oil price increase tops 50 percent ..."

Although the names and faces will change, we will
certainly see a rerun of 1979 because all Muslim
countries are "authoritarian" political systems and
therefore, inherently unstable:

"Only a handful of the more than four dozen
predominantly Muslim countries have made significant
strides toward establishing democratic systems.  Among
this handful -- including Albania, Bangladesh, Jordan,
Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Mali, Pakistan, and Turkey -- not
one has yet achieved full, stable, or secure
democracy.  And the largest single regional bloc
holding out against the global trend toward political
pluralism comprises the Muslim countries of the Middle
East and North Africa." [14]

OIL EXPORT POTENTIAL

A nation's oil "export potential" is determined
by subtracting its oil consumption from its oil
production.  For example, in 1998 Saudi Arabia
produced 9,230 Kb/day and consumed1,240 Kb/day.
Thus, the Saudi export potential is 7,999 Kb/day.
(No other country is even close to the Saudi's export
potential!) We can make a very rough estimate of
Muslim exports by considering the exports of Muslim
regions for1998, as follows:


Region                 Percent of World
--------------------|----------------------
Middle East         |   46%
North Africa        |   7%
West Africa         |   8%
FSU Caspian,        |
Indonesia, and      |
Malaysia            |   10%
--------------------|------
Est. 1998 Muslim    |   71%

Most Muslim oil-exporting nations are experiencing
serious cash flow problems and social unrest (e.g.,
Saudi Arabia) because of the failing "oil welfare"
approach they've taken with their citizens.  However,
these nations have a HUGE "savings account" in the
form of oil reserves.  The Middle East alone has 64
percent of the world's proved oil reserves.  Add to
that 9 percent (i.e., the FSU Muslim republics,
1.7 percent;  Muslim African nations, 6.7 percent;
Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei,1 percent) and the
Muslim nations have roughly 73 percent of the total
world's proved oil reserves. (See BP Amoco 1999.  Of
note: The data is from the oil industry itself.) Now that's
 money in the oily bank account, and the Muslims hold
the checkbook.  It's just a matter of time until domestic
unrest forces Muslim nations to coordinate their efforts
and solve their cash flow problems for decades to come.

By 2010, Muslim nations could control 60 percent of
the world's oil production and, more importantly, 95
percent of the world's oil exports.  In short, the Muslim
exporting nations have Western economies by the throat.

THAT GIANT SUCKING SOUND

http://www.bpamoco.com/worldenergy

The United States is physically unable to produce
enough oil domestically to keep its economy alive
and is forced to rely on imports.  In 1998, the United
States imported 53 percent of its oil needs.  This deficit
is growing -- and will continue to grow until the economy
collapses exactly like it did twenty-five years ago.  What's
utterly amazing is that even though these data are
available for everyone to see on the BP Amoco web site --
and in every major library for non-surfers -- there's
nobody in the Oval Office who seems to know how to
search the web (or the library)? Even our "environmentalist
VP" -- who claims to have "invented" the Internet -- is
apparently unable (or unwilling) to access BP's database.

THE LAWS

"The human species may be seen as having evolved in the
service of entropy, and it cannot be expected to
outlast the dense accumulations of energy that have
helped define its niche.  Human beings like to believe
they are in control of their destiny, but when the
history of life on Earth is seen in perspective, the
evolution of Homo sapiens is merely a transient
episode that acts to redress the planet's energy balance."
 -- David Price. [15]

The first law of thermodynamics (conservation law)
states that there can be no creation of matter/energy.
The German physicist Helmholtz and the British physicist
Lord Kelvin had explained the principle by the middle of
the 19th century.  The second law (entropy law) states
that spontaneous processes will increase the disorder
(or entropy) of a system; concentrations of matter tend
to disperse, structure tends to disappear, and order
becomes disorder.  Moreover, all physical processes
reduce the total available energy.

In 1824, the French physicist N. L. S. Carnot
formulated the second law's concepts while
working on "heat engines". [16]

Lord Kelvin and the German physicist Clausius
eventually formalized Carnot's concepts as the
second law of thermodynamics.  Most chemical
engineering, all power plant engineering, internal
combustion engineering, air-conditioning, and
low-temperature physics are a few of the fields
that owe their theoretical basis to thermodynamics.

Available energy is the prerequisite for any economic
activity.  For example, lifting 15 kg of rock 5 meters
out of the ground requires 735 joules of energy just
to overcome gravity -- and the higher the lift, the
greater the minimum energy requirements.[17]

The second law of thermodynamics places absolute
limits the efficiency of the heat engines that power the
global economy. [18]  A typical auto, bulldozer, truck,
or power plant wastes more than 50 percent of the
energy contained in its fuel!

By a hundred years ago, physics had incorporated
the laws of thermodynamics.  Obviously, energy
laws that govern the physical world also govern the
economic world.  Physical scientists attempted to
point out this crucial fact to economists:

"It is, in fact, the fate of all kinds of energy of
position to be ultimately converted into energy of
motion.  The former may be compared to money in a
bank, or capital, the latter to money which we are in
the act of spending ... If we pursue the analogy a
step further, we shall see that the great capitalist
is respected because he has the disposal of a great
quantity of energy; and that whether he be nobleman or
sovereign, or a general in command, he is powerful
only from having something which enables him to make
use of the services of others.  When a man of wealth
pays a labouring man to work for him, he is in truth
converting so much of his energy of position into
actual energy...The world of mechanism is not a
manufactory, in which energy is created, but rather a
mart, into which we may bring energy of one kind and
change or barter it for an equivalent of another kind,
that suits us better -- but if we come with nothing in
hand, with nothing we will most assuredly return."
 -- Balfour Stewart, 1883 [19]

But economists never understood the laws of
thermodynamics because they evolved to
worship the Market God instead.

THE MARKET GOD

"No discipline [ except economics ] attempts to make the
world act as it thinks the world should act.  But of
course what Homo sapiens does and what Homo economicus
should do are often quite different.  That, however,
does not make the basic model wrong, as it would in
every other discipline.  It just means that actions
must be taken to bend Homo sapiens into conformity
with Homo economicus.  So, instead of adjusting theory
to reality, reality is adjusted to theory."
-- Lester Thurow. [20]

"The human mind evolved to believe in gods... Acceptance
of the supernatural conveyed a great advantage
throughout prehistory, when the brain was evolving.
Thus it is in sharp contrast to [science] which was
developed as a product of the modern age and is not
underwritten by genetic algorithms."
-- E.O. Wilson. [21]

"A zoologist from Outer Space would immediately classify
us as just a third species of chimpanzee, along with
pygmy chimp of Zaire and the common chimp of the rest
of tropical Africa.  Molecular genetic studies of the
last half-dozen years have shown that we continue to
share over 98 percent of our genetic program with the
other two chimps."    -- Jared Diamond. [22]

Genes are simply chemicals that direct the combination
of more chemicals.  Edward Tatum and George Wells
Beadle investigated the transmission of hereditary
characteristics of genes and proved that particular
genes are responsible for particular enzymes, and
therefore all biochemical processes are regulated by
genes.  For their work on genetics, they shared the
1958 Nobel Prize in physiology or medicine with
Joshua Lederberg. For over 400 years, we've known
that genes drive behavior:

"Dogs provide a dramatic yet familiar example of
genetic variability within species.  Despite their
great variability in size and physical appearance,
they are all members of the same species.  Dogs also
illustrate within-species genetic effects on behavior.
Although physical differences are most obvious, dogs
have been bred for centuries as much for their
behavior as for their looks.  In 1576, the earliest
English-language book on dogs classified breeds
primarily on the basis of behavior.  For example,
terriers (from terra, which is Latin for 'earth') were
bred to creep into burrows to drive out small animals.
Another book, published in 1686, described the
behavior for which spaniels were originally selected.
They were bred to creep up on birds and then spring to
frighten the birds into the hunter's net.  With the
advent of the shotgun, different spaniels were bred to
point rather than to spring.  The author of the 1686
work was especially interested in temperament:
'Spaniels by Nature are very loveing, surpassing all
other Creatures, for in Heat and Cold, Wet and Dry,
Day and Night, they will not forsake their Master'.

End of Part I


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