🚀 go-pugleaf

Part II

"Behavioral classification of dogs continues today.
Sheepdogs herd, retrievers retrieve, trackers track,
and pointers point with minimal training.  Breeds also
differ strikingly in intelligence and in temperamental
traits such as emotionality, activity, and
aggressiveness.  The selection process can be quite
fine tuned.  For example, in France, where dogs are
used chiefly for farm work, there are 17 breeds of
shepherd and stock dogs specializing in aspects of
this work.  In England, dogs have been bred primarily
for hunting, and there are 26 recognized breeds of
hunting dogs.  Dogs are not unusual in their genetic
diversity, although they are unusual in the extent to
which different breeds have been intentionally bred to
accentuate genetic differences." [23]

Animal behavior can be deduced by careful observation
and explained by evolution theory.  By carefully observing
terriers, we can deduce that they were selected to creep
into burrows.  By carefully observing people, we can
deduce they were selected to believe in virtually anything:

"Precisely what we believe is immaterial; what matters
is the kind of behavior it generates.  This is why
humanity is characterized by such astonishing
diversity in its belief systems.  As far as our genes
are concerned, we can believe that the universe is
driven by an overweight fairy on a green cheese
bicycle provided that such belief effectively coerces
us into adopting genetically advantageous behavior in
all matters of evolutionary consequence, such as
feeding, mating, nurturing, bonding, and protecting
family, tribe, and territory." [24]

Even though scientists pointed out over a hundred
years ago that energy -- not money -- was the source
of the capitalists' wealth, economists just didn't have
the genes to give up their beliefs and face the real world.
In other words, two million years of evolution produced
an animal that was ideally suited to
worship the Market God. [25]

Adam Smith believed that God's divine plan was
revealed in a free market: "the divine being ... contrived
and conducted the immense machine of the universe, so
as at all times to produce the greatest possible quantity
of happiness."  Economic historian Deborah Redman
explains:  "Because the order of nature is providential,
the free market that reflects natural order also reflects
the workings of providence.  In this way the spheres of
morality, theology, jurisprudence, and economics
become hostages to nature, so to speak." [26]

The first commandment of the Market God (as revealed
by Adam Smith):  "Every man, as long as he does not
violate the laws of justice, is left perfectly free to pursue
his own interests in his own way, and to bring both his
industry and capital into competition with those of any
other man, or order of men."

The economists didn't have the genes to understand
the physics they were struggling to impersonate:

"[ With the development of modern physics ] it became
possible to see orthodox economic theory for what it
really was: a bowdlerized imitation of nineteenth-
century physics ... It was not the methods of
science that were appropriated by the early
neoclassicals as it was the appearances of science,
for the early neoclassicals possessed a singularly
inept understanding of the physics they so admired ...
[ Neoclassical economists attempt ] to reduce all
social institutions such as money, property rights,
and the market itself to epiphenomena of individual
constrained optimization calculation.  All these
attempts have failed, despite their supposed
dependence upon mathematical rigor, because they
always inadvertently assume what they aim to deduce
... Conservation principles are the key to the
understanding of a mathematical formulation of any
phenomenon, and it has been there that the
neoclassicals have been woefully negligent."  [27]

"Once one gets the scorecard straight, then it will
become apparent that twentieth-century neoclassical
theory resembles nothing so much as the child's game
of Mr. Potatohead -- the fun comes in mixing and
matching components with little or no concern for the
coherence of the final profile." [28]

Had economists evolved to understand the first
and second laws of thermodynamics, they would
have realized it was just a matter of time until
global society entered a period of chronic energy
shortage.  Since neither capital nor labor can create
energy, central bankers will soon have no way to
manipulate the economy:

"Increases or decreases in the level of money supply
are thought to influence the level of production in
the economy.  However, this is true only if the
'externals' to the economy -- i.e., sources of energy
from outside of the money circle -- are constant.
When the availability of energy changes, the economy
changes in ways not correctable by manipulations of
the money supply." [29]

If central bankers try to stimulate the economy under
conditions of chronic energy shortage, they will create
"stagflation" instead:

"High inflation rates can be explained by the linkages
between fuel use and money supply.  If the money
supply is increased, stimulating demand beyond levels
that can be satisfied by existing fuel supplies, then
prices will rise.  This implies that when the costs of
obtaining fuel are high, fiscal and monetary policies
may not be successful in stimulating economic growth." [30]

The next round of energy-shortage-induced stagflation
will leave central bankers helpless and they will seek
military solutions to their economic problems.  This
certainly isn't the first time that faith in the Market
God has led to military solutions.

SAME BELIEF HAS SAME RESULT

"The true nature of the highly artificial economic
organization on which peace rested becomes of utmost
significance to the historian."     -- Karl Polanyi

"In late 1973 the first OPEC oil shock struck, as oil
prices quadrupled and the general inflation indexes
shot up to 11 percent.  More important, gasoline lines
appeared.  Waiting in line to buy a basic commodity
like gasoline is something that no American had ever
experienced.  Shock and irritation were high, but
those lines were like the first small heart attack --
an indication of mortality... What was worse,
economists could pose no solution to the energy
problem.  Influential professionals, such as Milton
Friedman, predicted that the oil cartel would quickly
fall apart.  It didn't."  -- Lester Thurow. [31]

In the 19th century, economist Hermann Gossen
proclaimed: "It would only frustrate totally or in
part the purpose of the Creator were we to attempt
to neutralize [the free market] in total or in part, as
is the intention of some moral codes promulgated by
men."  And he asks with moral indignation:  "How
can a creature be so arrogant as to frustrate totally or
partly the purpose of his creator?"[32]  The economists'
faith in the Market God led to two world wars and sent
millions to their deaths.

No other historian has explained the human
suffering caused by failed economic theories
as well as Karl Polanyi:

"The origins of the cataclysm lay in the utopian
endeavor of economic liberalism to set up a
self-regulating market system." [p. 29]

"By the fourth quarter of the nineteenth century, world
commodity prices were the central reality in the lives
of millions of Continental peasants; the repercussions
of the London money market were daily noted by
businessmen all over the world; and governments
discussed plans for the future in light of the
situation on the world capital markets.  Only a madman
would have doubted that the international economic
system was the axis of the material existence of the
race.  Because this system needed peace in order to
function, the balance of power was made to serve it.
Take this economic system away and the peace interest
would disappear from politics." [p. 18]

"By the end of the seventies the free trade episode
(1846-79) was at an end; the actual use of the gold
standard by Germany marked the beginnings of an era of
protectionism and colonial expansion... the symptoms of
the dissolution of the existing forms of world economy
-- colonial rivalry and competition for exotic markets
-- became acute.  The ability of haute finance to
avert the spread of wars was diminishing rapidly.  For
another seven years peace dragged on but it was only a
question of time before the dissolution of nineteenth
century economic organization would bring the Hundred
Years' Peace to a close." [p. 19]

"The breakdown of the international gold standard was
the invisible link between the disintegration of
world economy since the turn of the century and
the transformation of a whole civilization in the
thirties.  Unless the vital importance of this factor
is realized, it is not possible to see rightly either
the mechanism which railroaded Europe to its doom, or
the circumstances which accounted for the astounding
fact that the forms and contents of a civilization
should rest on so precarious foundations.

"The true nature of the international system under
which we were living was not realized until it failed.
Hardly anyone understood the political function of the
international monetary system; the awful suddenness of
the transformation thus took the world completely by
surprise... To liberal economists the gold standard
was purely an economic institution; they refused even
to consider it as a part of a social mechanism.  Thus
it happened that the democratic countries were the
last to realize the true nature of the catastrophe and
the slowest to counter its effects.  Not even when the
cataclysm was already upon them did their leaders see
that behind the collapse of the international system
there stood a long development within the most
advanced countries which made that system
anachronistic; in other words, the failure of market
economy itself still escaped them." [p. 20]

"The transformation came on even more abruptly than
is usually realized. World War I and the postwar
revolutions still formed part of the nineteenth
century.  The conflict of 1914-18 merely precipitated
and immeasurably aggravated a crisis that it did not
create.  But the roots of the dilemma could not be
discerned at the time ... The dissolution of the system
of world economy which had been in progress since
1900 was responsible for the political tension that
exploded in 1914." [p. 21] [33]

Exactly like the economists of one hundred years
ago, and despite millions killed in two world wars
by their mistakes, economists still worship the
Market God.  Moreover, economists still haven't
changed their inherently defective methodology.

Economists first abstract all commodities to
money -- which of course, obliterates all
qualitative differences between the commodities
themselves, and leaves economists uniquely
unqualified to know anything about the
commodities they purport to study.

Although economists treat energy just like any
other resource, it's not like any other resource.
Available energy is the precondition for all
resources -- including more available energy!
Because of their total dependence on the measure
of "money", today's most prominent economists
are unable to know the difference between
"libraries" and "oil":

"Should we be taking steps to limit the use of these
most precious stocks of society's capital so that they
will still be available for our grandchildren? ...
Economists ask, Would future generations benefit more
from larger stocks of natural capital such as oil,
gas, and coal or from more produced capital such as
additional scientists, better laboratories, and
libraries linked together by information superhighways?
... in the long run, oil and gas are not essential."
[Nobel Laureate Paul Samuelson
and William Nordhaus] [34]

Talk about an evolutionary cul-de-sac!

The economists' devotion to the Market God coupled
with their innate inability to know the difference
between libraries and oil will lead to a new
generation of wars and send billions to their deaths.

The next cycle of death will begin when the world
experiences a severe oil crunch in less than ten years
(probably less than five, perhaps much less).  The
crunch will be triggered by a political upheaval in
one or more of the major oil-producing nations, a
Muslim backlash against America's friendship with
Israel, OPEC reducing production to make more
profit, or simply the natural -- and inevitable --
"peak" in global oil production.

Once the crunch is here, it's too late.  The global
economy will go to hell and rational planning will
be replaced by crisis management.  With the oil gone,
there is nothing left to work with anyway.

The coming oil crunch is the best-kept secret in
Washington, Whitehall, Brussels, and Jerusalem,
but it's just a matter of time until word hits the street...

TIME MAGAZINE -- January 14, 1974

It looked like a hand grenade, so the Albany, N.Y.,
station operator played it safe and assumed that it
was a hand grenade. He gave the man who was toting
it all the gas he wanted. Attendants elsewhere last
week faced curses and threats of violence, sometimes
backed by suspicious bulges in the pockets of jackets.
When a huge bear of a man warned a Springfield, Mass.,
dealer,  "You are going to give me gas or I will kill you,"
the dealer squeezed his parched pumps to find some.
"Better a live coward than a dead hero," he said.

Such incidents were not exactly common last week,
but they occurred often enough, especially in the
Northeast, to indicate an outbreak of a kind of
gasoline madness.  The New Year's weekend was
the first time that many drivers became really
desperate for gas.  Many stations ran out of their
monthly allotments as the weekend started and
closed until they could get new deliveries after the
holiday.  Those that stayed open backed up long
lines of drivers whose tempers sometimes exploded --
especially if they found the pumps dry when they
finally got to them.

The gas shortage is sparking other types of deviant
behavior. Flouting of the law is on the rise.  In New
York City, two gasoline tanks trucks, each loaded
with 3,000 gallons, were hijacked within a week.
Price gouging by station owners has become
distressingly common.  Miamians complain of
having to pay $1 a gallon or being charged a
$2 "service fee" before a station attendant
will wait on them.

At best, many gas station owners and attendants
have become unapproachable to strangers; they
will wait only on longtime customers.  Some issue
window stickers to the regulars; others sell by
appointment only.  Oregon Governor Tom McCall
last week rolled into a Union 76 station only to be
told by the manager: "Sorry, Governor, we're only
selling to our regular customers."

So the Governor meekly drove to the end of the line
at a nearby station that was taking all comers...
-------------------------------------------------------------

[1] THE PRIZE: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and
Power, by Daniel Yergin, Joseph Stanislaw (Contributor);
Touchstone, 1993
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0671799320/brainfood.a

[2] Richard Duncan's letter to President Clinton is
archived at http://dieoff.com/page172.htm

[3] James Madison was the fourth President of the United
States (1809-1817).  A member of the Continental Congress
(1780-1783) and the Constitutional Convention (1787), he
strongly supported ratification of the Constitution and was
a contributor to The Federalist Papers (1787-1788), which
argued the effectiveness of the proposed constitution.
Madison has been described by political historian
Richard K. Matthews as the "ideal Machiavellian Prince",
the "father of the Constitution", the "father of the
Bill of Rights", the "father of political parties",
and the "father of preferred freedoms".

[4] p. 79, IF MEN WERE ANGELS: James Madison
 & the Heartless Empire of Reason,
by Richard K. Matthews; Kansas, 1995;
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0700608079/brainfood.a

[5] ibid. p. 84.

[6] p. 314, GETTING DOWN TO EARTH, by Robert Costanza et al.,
Eds.; Island Press, 1996;
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1559635037/brainfood.a

[7] OIL AS A FINITE RESOURCE: When Is Global Production
Likely to Peak? by James J. MacKenzie; World Resources Institute,
1966;  http://www.wri.org/wri/climate/finitoil/eur-oil.html

[8] see  http://www.petroconsultants.com

[9] THE DEATH OF THE OIL ECONOMY, by Ted Trainer; Earth
Island Journal, Spring 1997;  http://dieoff.com/page116.htm

[10] p. 87, BEYOND OIL, by John Gever et al., Univ. Pr.
Colorado, 1991;
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0870812424/brainfood.a

[11] THE POST-PETROLEUM PARADIGM -- AND POPULATION,
by Walter Youngquist; Population and Environment: A Journal
of Interdisciplinary Studies Volume 20, Number 4, March 1999;
http://www.dieoff.com/page171.htm

[12] ibid. Pimentel, D. (1998a).

[13] THE WORLD PETROLEUM LIFE-CYCLE: Encircling the
Production Peak, by Richard Duncan, Institute on Energy and
Man, Seattle, WA. 1997;  http://dieoff.com/page133.htm

[14] ISLAM AND LIBERAL DEMOCRACY:
Two Visions Of Reformation, by Robin Wright;
Journal of Democracy 7.2 (1996) 64-75;
http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/rwright.htm

One can make a rough estimate of the stability of Muslim
nations by using Freedom House's list of "free" countries as a
proxy for democracy, and the following list of Muslim countries:

Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Benin,
Brunei, Cameroon, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt,
Gabon, Gambia, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan,
Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Malaysia, Maldives, Morocco,
Mozambique, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi
Arabia, Senegal, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey,
UAE, Uzbekistan, Yemen.  (Of course, not all were
involved in wars.)

In the last thirty years, Muslim countries
(which total 37) were involved in roughly
27 wars while "free" countries (which total
88) were involved in about 20 wars (including
wars with Muslim countries).
http://freedomhouse.org/survey99/country/
http://www.gn.apc.org/peacepledge/wars/war_index.html

[15] ENERGY AND HUMAN EVOLUTION, by David
Price, 1995;  http://dieoff.com/page137.htm

[16] Internal combustion, steam, or gas turbines
are called "heat engines" because they convert fuel
into heat, then into mechanical motion.

[17] For a vertical lift: joules = meters X kg X 9.8

[18] A typical gasoline engine with a compression ratio of
8:1 cannot exceed a theoretical 45 percent efficiency, in
practice might be about 35 percent; for a diesel with 20:1
it's 55 percent, 45 percent; for a turbine with 30:1 it's
60 percent, 50 percent.

[19] p. 132, MORE HEAT THAN LIGHT, by
Philip Mirowski; Cambridge, 1989;
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0521426898/brainfood.a

[20] DANGEROUS CURRENTS: The State of Economics,
by Lester C. Thurow; Random, 1983;
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0394723686/brainfood.a ;
http://dieoff.com/page162.htm

[21] The Biological Basis of Morality, E.O. Wilson
http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/98apr/bio2.htm

[22] p. 2, THE THIRD CHIMPANZEE, by Jared Diamond;
Harperperennial, 1992;
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0060984031/brainfood.a

[23]  pp. 58-59. BEHAVIORAL GENETICS: Third Edition, Plomin
et al; Freeman, 1997;
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0716728249/brainfood.a

[24] p. 186, THE SPIRIT IN THE GENE: Humanity's Proud
Illusion and the Laws of Nature, by Reg Morrison, Lynn Margulis;
Cornell, 1999;
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0801436516/brainfood.a

[25] Scientists search for truth by forming statements that
can be tested.  If a statement cannot be tested, then it is not
"scientific".  Testable statements are known as "hypotheses" and
take the general form "IF [I do this], THEN [this will occur] ".
For example, the hypothesis "IF I drop a rock, THEN it will fall
to the ground" it can be tested to see if it is "false".

In 1934, Sir Karl Popper proposed a criterion of testability,
or falsifiability, for scientific validity.  Scientific theories
are hypotheses from which can be deduced statements
testable by observation; if the appropriate experimental
observations falsify these statements, the hypothesis is
refuted.  If a hypothesis survives efforts to falsify it, it
may be tentatively accepted. No scientific theory, however,
can be conclusively established.

Popper's mode of thought -- the habit of attempting to prove
oneself wrong -- is the only path to knowledge about the real
world.

Evolutionary psychologists have found that humans
evolved to naturally use a "falsification strategy" with
respect to the social world, but use a "confirmation
strategy" with respect to the physical world.  Our
innate social-world "falsification strategy" causes us
to instinctively reject social anomalies and attempt to
"falsify" claims about the real world that might
jeopardize social beliefs (e.g., the claim that
global oil production will "peak" soon).

On the other hand, our innate physical-world "confirmation
strategy" allows us to defend social constructions of reality
(e.g., the "free market") to the death, even if the ideals they
represent are far from physical reality.  The most notorious
example of this "confirmation strategy" was Julian Simon.

"Consider first a phenomenon I call the deontic effect
in human reasoning (Cummins, 1996b, 1996c). Deontic
reasoning is reasoning about rights and obligations; that
is, reasoning about what one is permitted, obligated, or
forbidden to do (Hilpinen, 1981; Manktelow & Over, 1991).
Deontic reasoning contrasts with indicative reasoning,
which is reasoning about what is true or false.  When
reasoning about deontic rules (social norms), humans
spontaneously adopt a violation-detection strategy: They
look for cheaters or rule-breakers.  In contrast, when
reasoning about the truth status of statements about
the world, they spontaneously adopt a confirmation-seeking
strategy.  This effect is apparent in the reasoning of children
as young as three years of age (Cummins, 1996a; Harris &
Nu�ez, 1996) and has been observed in literally hundreds of
experiments on adult reasoning over the course of nearly
thirty years, making it one of the most reliable effects in
the psychological literature (see Cummins, 1996b,
996c, and Oaksford & Chapter, 1996 for reviews of this
literature)." [pp. 39, 40] THE EVOLUTION OF MIND, by
Denise D. Cummins (Editor), Colin Allen (Editor), Oxford, 1998
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0195110536/brainfood.a

[26] p. 237, THE RISE OF POLITICAL ECONOMY AS A SCIENCE,
Deborah Redman; MIT, 1997
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0262181797/brainfood.a

[27] p. 6, AGAINST MECHANISM: Protecting Economics from
Science, by Philip Mirowski; Rowman and Littlefield, 1988;
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0847676951/brainfood.a

[28] p. 294, Mirowski, 1989

[29] H.T. Odum in pp. 204-206, A SURVEY OF ECOLOGICAL
ECONOMICS, Krishnan, Harris, and Goodwin, eds., Island Press,
1995;
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1559634111/brainfood.a

[30] SUMMARY OF ENERGY AND THE US ECONOMY: A Biophysical
Perspective by Cutler J. Cleveland, Robert Costanza, Charles A.S.
Hall, and Robert Kaufmann; Science 225 (31 August 1984): 890-897.
http://dieoff.com/page17.htm#energy

[31] DANGEROUS CURRENTS: The State of Economics, by Lester C.
Thurow; Random, 1983;
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0394723686/brainfood.a ;
http://dieoff.com/page162.htm

[32] p. 45, HUMANIST ECONOMICS: The New Challenge, by Mark
Lutz and Kenneth Lux; Bootstrap Press, 1988;
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0942850068/brainfood.a

[33] THE GREAT TRANSFORMATION, by Karl Polanyi; Beacon, 1957;
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0807056790/brainfood.a

[34] Please read the following quote carefully and try to
deduce the nature of the animal:

"Should we be taking steps to limit the use of these most
precious stocks of society's capital so that they will still be
available for our grandchildren?

"Economists answer this question in two ways.  First,
they point out that fossil fuels like oil and gas are finite
but not 'essential.'  An essential resource is one, like
oxygen, for which there are no substitutes.  Substitutes
exist for all the energy resources.  We can substitute coal
for oil and gas in most uses; we can liquefy or gasify coal
where liquid or gas fuels are needed; when coal runs out,
we can use higher-cost solar energy, nuclear fission, and
perhaps someday even nuclear fusion.  These last three are
superabundant in the sense that when we run out of
solar energy, the earth will already be uninhabitable.

"A second point concerns the relative productivity of
different assets.  Many environmentalists argue that
energy and other natural resources like wilderness
areas and old-growth forests are very special kinds of
capital that need to be preserved so that we can
maintain "sustainable" economic growth. Economists
tend to disagree.  They look at natural resources as
yet another capital asset that society possesses -- along
with fast computers, human capital in an educated work
force, and technological knowledge in its patents, scientists,
and engineers.  Both economists and environmentalists agree
that this generation should leave an adequate stock of capital
assets for future generations; but economists worry less about
the exact form of capital than about its productivity.  Economists
ask, Would future generations benefit more from larger stocks of
natural capital such as oil, gas, and coal or from more produced
capital such as additional scientists, better laboratories, and
libraries linked together by information superhighways?

"The substitutability of natural capital and other kinds of
capital is shown by the production indifference curve or
'isoquant' in Figure 18-2.  We show there the amounts of the two
kinds of capital that would be required to attain a certain level
of output in the future (Q*), holding other inputs constant.
That output can be produced at point C with a conservationist
policy that emphasizes reducing energy use today, leaving much
oil and gas and relatively little human capital for the future.
Or it might be produced with a low-energy-price and
high-education strategy at B.  Either of these is feasible, and
the more desirable one would be the one that has a higher
consumption both now and in the future.

"Note as well that the isoquant hits the vertical axis at
point A, indicating that we can produce future output level Q*
with no oil and gas.  How is this possible?  With the greater
scientific and technical knowledge represented by point A,
society can develop and introduce substitute technologies like
clean coal or solar energy to replace the exhausted oil and gas.
The curve hits the axis to indicate that in the long run, oil and
gas are not essential." [ p. 328, ECONOMICS, Paul Samuelson and
William Nordhaus; McGraw-Hill, 1998;
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0070579474/brainfood.a

FIRST!! A big *THANK YOU* to Jay Hanson for his continued
efforts with respect to trying to wake a sleeping world . . . . .

Now, *think* about Einstein's concerns with regard to nuclear weapons:

"there is no secret and there is no defense; there is
no possibility of control except through the aroused
understanding and insistence of the peoples of the
world.   A. Einstein, Jan 22, 1947

Then, go to:  <http://www.connection.com/~taxfree>

Answer "The Question", then, if you share
Einstein's concerns, MAIL YOUR NOTICE
that you will never again file returns or pay taxes; OR
MAIL YOUR DEMAND that the Tax Refusal be stopped.
 --
Do it!! Learn the 20/20!! Then spit on your stamp!
Pop it in the mail box!  Watch "The Taxman" rant!


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