🚀 go-pugleaf

In article <1992Sep29.143407.11214@athena.mit.edu>, tada@athena.mit.edu (Michael J Zehr) writes:
|> 
|> 13 14 15 16 17 18  19 20 21 22 23 24
|>              O  O   O  O  X  O  O   
|>              O  O   O  O  X  O  O   
|>                     O           O   
|>                                     
|>                   O                 
|>                     X  X  X         
|>                     X  X  X     X  X
|>                     X  X  X     X  X
|> 12 11 10  9  8  7   6  5  4  3  2  1
|> 
|> 0-0 in a match to 5, X on roll, cube action?
|> 
|> I looked at this and thought that any 5 or 6 (20 rolls) followed by a
|> dance (25 rolls) and I would lose my market.  Also, I thought there was
|> a good chance my opponent would drop.... So I doubled, rolled a 6-2 and
|> ran with 1 back checker, opponent rolled 43 to enter and hit loose, I
|> rolled 4-5 with which I hit and played 4-9 (figuring I didn't need a
|> third blot back, and expecting to win a race in the worse case) opponent
|> fanned, I rooled 11 to close him out and gammon him. ho-hum.  
|> 
|> But I question whether my double was correct.  As I said, my main reason
|> for doubling was I thought he would drop.
|> 
|> btw, I'm sure of all the pips in my home board, except maybe the spare
|> on my 6, and the points owned by each opponent, but I don't ecall
|> the exact placement of the spare checkers.  How sensitive is this
|> position to those extra checkers?

Michael, clearly your double was correct -- look at the results! ;-)

Seriously, I think your analysis is accurate -- you have several
immediate market losers (66, 65, 55, 32, 31, 21, and 11) plus a host
of others if your opponent dances.  Even without the spare checker on
your 6-point you have 7 immediate market losers.

Actually, it looks to me like you've already lost your market (which
is what you thought).  On the take side, there's little chance of a
gammon here if O plays super-safe, and the race is even.  However, as
your results show, X is likely to gain outfield control, forcing O to
leave blots against a 5-point board.

- Phil