🚀 go-pugleaf

HI ALL !

this is a problem from a game played on server 

O to move 5-2 (actually O rolled 2-6, but 5-2 is a problem 2-6 is not)
X owns the cube at 9-7 (in 11 pointer)


the question is should O move to 18 or stay back at 20:

if O stays at 20: O gets 9 indirect shots (1/6) and 2 direct shots (11/36)

if O moves to 18: O gets 9 direct shots (11/36-13/36) and 4 inderect shots
(1/18)

so if O moves to 18 he gets more shots next time, but won't get any further
shots (ok in some rare cases yes X rolls 12, 12 or X prefers to hit for some
reason), but if he stays on 20 he will perhaps get many times shots on 12 or 13
(may even get shot on 19)

I would move 18/20  11/6 because in this case you get the shot next roll or not
(and if not O stll has some chances in race) O is well in the race in case X
rolls small and even if O doesn't hit (since X has rollled small and O big)

If O stays back he risks many pick and pass numbers also.


  +-------------------------------------------------------------+         
  |\------------------------+-----+----------------------------/|
  || 13  14  15  16  17  18 |     | 19  20  21  22  23  24 ||  ||
  ||                        |     |  X   O   X   X   X   X ||  ||
  ||                        |     |  X       X   X   X   X ||  ||
  ||                        |     |  X       X       X     ||  ||
  ||                        |     |  X                     ||  ||
  ||                        |     |                        ||  ||
  ||                        |     |                        ||  ||
  ||                        | B 64|                        ||  ||
  ||                        |  A  |                        ||--||
  ||                        |   R |                        ||  ||
  ||                        |     |                        ||  ||
  ||                        |     |                        ||  ||
  ||                        |     |                        ||  ||
  ||                        |     |          O             ||  ||
  ||                  O     |     |  O   O   O       O   O ||  ||
  ||  X   O           O     |     |  O   O   O       O   O ||  ||
  || 12  11  10  09  08  07 |     | 06  05  04  03  02  01 ||  ||
  |/------------------------+-----+----------------------------\|
  +-------------------------------------------------------------+
		O to move 5-2:


-mika