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Article #2695

Re: Are you sure? NO - flame-resistant clothing ON <SPOILER>

#2695
From: David Karr
Date: Thu, 28 Jan 1993 19:59
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In article <93027.155827RVESTERM@vma.cc.nd.edu> <RVESTERM@vma.cc.nd.edu> writes:
>[...] let's dissect the question: "i have two children.
>at least one is a daughter. what's the chance that the other is a daughter?"
>is the same as "what is the chance that both of my children are female, given
>that at least one is female?"

Maybe.

I have two children, at least one is a daughter.  What's the chance
that the other is a daughter?

My mother has two children, at least one is a son.  What's the chance
that the other is a son?

My cousin Charlotte has two children, at least one is a son.  What's
the chance that the other is a son?

Is the answer 1/3 in all cases?  Can you reconcile that with the fact
that the first question is about daughters and the others are about
sons?

In any case, none of this has anything to do with meeting any of these
offspring in the street, which is a different sampling procedure
altogether.

-- David Karr (karr@cs.cornell.edu)
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Message-ID: <1993Jan28.195915.16343@cs.cornell.edu>
Path: arc1-ca.pugleaf.net!sparky!uunet!mdisea!uw-coco!uw-beaver!cornell!karr
References: <1993Jan26.115545.11556@eng.cam.ac.uk> <1993Jan26.121406.11680@eng.cam.ac.uk> <93027.155827RVESTERM@vma.cc.nd.edu>

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Path: arc1-ca.pugleaf.net!sparky!uunet!mdisea!uw-coco!uw-beaver!cornell!karr
From: karr@cs.cornell.edu (David Karr)
Subject: Re: Are you sure? NO - flame-resistant clothing ON <SPOILER>
Message-ID: <1993Jan28.195915.16343@cs.cornell.edu>
Organization: Cornell Univ. CS Dept, Ithaca NY 14853
References: <1993Jan26.115545.11556@eng.cam.ac.uk> <1993Jan26.121406.11680@eng.cam.ac.uk> <93027.155827RVESTERM@vma.cc.nd.edu>
Date: Thu, 28 Jan 1993 19:59:15 GMT
Lines: 27